We establish a normal approximation for the limiting distribution of partial sums of random Rademacher multiplicative functions over function fields, provided the number of irreducible factors of the polynomials is small enough. This parallels work of Harper for random Rademacher multiplicative functions over the integers.

We revisit the so-called cat-and-mouse Markov chain, studied earlier by Litvak and Robert (2012). This is a two-dimensional Markov chain on the lattice $\mathbb{Z}^2$ , where the first component (the cat) is a simple random walk and the second component (the mouse) changes when the components meet. We obtain new results for two generalisations of the model. First, in the two-dimensional case we consider far more general jump distributions for the components and obtain a scaling limit for the second component. When we let the first component be a simple random walk again, we further generalise the jump distribution of the second component. Secondly, we consider chains of three and more dimensions, where we investigate structural properties of the model and find a limiting law for the last component.

For a one-locus haploid infinite population with discrete generations, the celebrated model of Kingman describes the evolution of fitness distributions under the competition of selection and mutation, with a constant mutation probability. This paper generalises Kingman’s model by using independent and identically distributed random mutation probabilities, to reflect the influence of a random environment. The weak convergence of fitness distributions to the globally stable equilibrium is proved. Condensation occurs when almost surely a positive proportion of the population travels to and condenses at the largest fitness value. Condensation may occur when selection is favoured over mutation. A criterion for the occurrence of condensation is given.

We investigate random minimal factorizations of the n-cycle, that is, factorizations of the permutation $(1 \, 2 \cdots n)$ into a product of cycles $\tau_1, \ldots, \tau_k$ whose lengths $\ell(\tau_1), \ldots, \ell(\tau_k)$ satisfy the minimality condition $\sum_{i=1}^k(\ell(\tau_i)-1)=n-1$ . By associating to a cycle of the factorization a black polygon inscribed in the unit disk, and reading the cycles one after another, we code a minimal factorization by a process of colored laminations of the disk. These new objects are compact subsets made of red noncrossing chords delimiting faces that are either black or white. Our main result is the convergence of this process as $n \rightarrow \infty$ , when the factorization is randomly chosen according to Boltzmann weights in the domain of attraction of an $\alpha$ -stable law, for some $\alpha \in (1,2]$ . The limiting process interpolates between the unit circle and a colored version of Kortchemski’s $\alpha$ -stable lamination. Our principal tool in the study of this process is a new bijection between minimal factorizations and a model of size-conditioned labeled random trees whose vertices are colored black or white, as well as the investigation of the asymptotic properties of these trees.

Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum $S_n=X_1+\dots+X_n$ of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated, in particular when $X_1$ is not exponentially integrable. For instance, Nagaev (1969a, 1969b) formulated exact asymptotics results for $\mathbb{P}(S_n>x_n)$ with $x_n\to \infty$ when $X_1$ has a semiexponential distribution. In the same setting, Brosset et al. (2020) derived deviation results at logarithmic scale with shorter proofs relying on classical tools of large-deviation theory and making the rate function at the transition explicit. In this paper we exhibit the same asymptotic behavior for triangular arrays of semiexponentially distributed random variables.

We obtain quenched almost sure invariance principles (with convergence rates) for random Young towers if the average measure of the tail of return times to the base of random towers decays sufficiently fast. We apply our results to some independent and identically distributed perturbations of some non-uniformly expanding maps. These imply that the random systems under study tend to a Brownian motion under various scalings.

Reaction networks are commonly used within the mathematical biology and mathematical chemistry communities to model the dynamics of interacting species. These models differ from the typical graphs found in random graph theory since their vertices are constructed from elementary building blocks, i.e. the species. We consider these networks in an Erdös–Rényi framework and, under suitable assumptions, derive a threshold function for the network to have a deficiency of zero, which is a property of great interest in the reaction network community. Specifically, if the number of species is denoted by n and the edge probability by $p_n$ , then we prove that the probability of a random binary network being deficiency zero converges to 1 if $p_n\ll r(n)$ as $n \to \infty$ , and converges to 0 if $p_n \gg r(n)$ as $n \to \infty$ , where $r(n)=\frac{1}{n^3}$ .

We give a setting of the Diaconis–Freedman chain in a multi-dimensional simplex and consider its asymptotic behavior. By using techniques from random iterated function theory and quasi-compact operator theory, we first give some sufficient conditions which ensure the existence and uniqueness of an invariant probability measure and, in particular cases, explicit formulas for the invariant probability density. Moreover, we completely classify all behaviors of this chain in dimension two. Some other settings of the chain are also discussed.

Latouche and Nguyen (2015b) constructed a sequence of stochastic fluid processes and showed that it converges weakly to a Markov-modulated Brownian motion (MMBM). Here, we construct a different sequence of stochastic fluid processes and show that it converges strongly to an MMBM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result on strong convergence to a Markov-modulated Brownian motion. Besides implying weak convergence, such a strong approximation constitutes a powerful tool for developing deep results for sophisticated models. Additionally, we prove that the rate of this almost sure convergence is $o(n^{-1/2} \log n)$ . When reduced to the special case of standard Brownian motion, our convergence rate is an improvement over that obtained by a different approximation in Gorostiza and Griego (1980), which is $o(n^{-1/2}(\log n)^{5/2})$ .

We investigate vertex levels of containment in a random hypergraph grown in the spirit of a recursive tree. We consider a local profile tracking the evolution of the containment of a particular vertex over time, and a global profile concerned with counts of the number of vertices of a particular containment level.

For the local containment profile, we obtain the exact mean, variance, and probability distribution in terms of standard combinatorial quantities such as generalized harmonic numbers and Stirling numbers of the first kind. Asymptotically, we observe phases: the early vertices have an asymptotically normal distribution, intermediate vertices have a Poisson distribution, and late vertices have a degenerate distribution.

As for the global containment profile, we establish an asymptotically normal distribution for the number of vertices at the smallest containment level as well as their covariances with the number of vertices at the second smallest containment level and the variances of these numbers. The orders in the variance–covariance matrix establish concentration laws.

We consider a collection of Markov chains that model the evolution of multitype biological populations. The state space of the chains is the positive orthant, and the boundary of the orthant is the absorbing state for the Markov chain and represents the extinction states of different population types. We are interested in the long-term behavior of the Markov chain away from extinction, under a small noise scaling. Under this scaling, the trajectory of the Markov process over any compact interval converges in distribution to the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) evolving in the positive orthant. We study the asymptotic behavior of the quasi-stationary distributions (QSD) in this scaling regime. Our main result shows that, under conditions, the limit points of the QSD are supported on the union of interior attractors of the flow determined by the ODE. We also give lower bounds on expected extinction times which scale exponentially with the system size. Results of this type when the deterministic dynamical system obtained under the scaling limit is given by a discrete-time evolution equation and the dynamics are essentially in a compact space (namely, the one-step map is a bounded function) have been studied by Faure and Schreiber (2014). Our results extend these to a setting of an unbounded state space and continuous-time dynamics. The proofs rely on uniform large deviation results for small noise stochastic dynamical systems and methods from the theory of continuous-time dynamical systems.

In general, QSD for Markov chains with absorbing states and unbounded state spaces may not exist. We study one basic family of binomial-Poisson models in the positive orthant where one can use Lyapunov function methods to establish existence of QSD and also to argue the tightness of the QSD of the scaled sequence of Markov chains. The results from the first part are then used to characterize the support of limit points of this sequence of QSD.

We determine the asymptotics of the number of independent sets of size $\lfloor \beta 2^{d-1} \rfloor$ in the discrete hypercube $Q_d = \{0,1\}^d$ for any fixed $\beta \in (0,1)$ as $d \to \infty$ , extending a result of Galvin for $\beta \in (1-1/\sqrt{2},1)$ . Moreover, we prove a multivariate local central limit theorem for structural features of independent sets in $Q_d$ drawn according to the hard-core model at any fixed fugacity $\lambda>0$ . In proving these results we develop several general tools for performing combinatorial enumeration using polymer models and the cluster expansion from statistical physics along with local central limit theorems.

We show that a piecewise monotonic map with positive topological entropy satisfies the level-2 large deviation principle with respect to the unique measure of maximal entropy under the conditions that the corresponding Markov diagram is irreducible and that the periodic measures of the map are dense in the set of ergodic measures. This result can apply to a broad class of piecewise monotonic maps, such as monotonic mod one transformations and piecewise monotonic maps with two monotonic pieces.

Let $\mathbf{X}$ be a $p\times n$ random matrix whose entries are independent and identically distributed real random variables with zero mean and unit variance. We study the limiting behaviors of the 2-normal condition number k(p,n) of $\mathbf{X}$ in terms of large deviations for large n, with p being fixed or $p=p(n)\rightarrow\infty$ with $p(n)=o(n)$ . We propose two main ingredients: (i) to relate the large-deviation probabilities of k(p,n) to those involving n independent and identically distributed random variables, which enables us to consider a quite general distribution of the entries (namely the sub-Gaussian distribution), and (ii) to control, for standard normal entries, the upper tail of k(p,n) using the upper tails of ratios of two independent $\chi^2$ random variables, which enables us to establish an application in statistical inference.

In addition to the features of the two-parameter Chinese restaurant process (CRP), the restaurant under consideration has a cocktail bar and hence allows for a wider range of (bar and table) occupancy mechanisms. The model depends on three real parameters, $\alpha$ , $\theta_1$ , and $\theta_2$ , fulfilling certain conditions. Results known for the two-parameter CRP are carried over to this model. We study the number of customers at the cocktail bar, the number of customers at each table, and the number of occupied tables after n customers have entered the restaurant. For $\alpha>0$ the number of occupied tables, properly scaled, is asymptotically three-parameter Mittag–Leffler distributed as n tends to infinity. We provide representations for the two- and three-parameter Mittag–Leffler distribution leading to efficient random number generators for these distributions. The proofs draw heavily from methods known for exchangeable random partitions, martingale methods known for generalized Pólya urns, and results known for the two-parameter CRP.

In the collector’s problem with group drawings, s out of n different types of coupon are sampled with replacement. In the uniform case, each s-subset of the types has the same probability of being sampled. For this case, we derive a Poisson limit theorem for the number of types that are sampled at most $c-1$ times, where $c \ge 1$ is fixed. In a specified approximate nonuniform setting, we prove a Poisson limit theorem for the special case $c=1$ . As corollaries, we obtain limit distributions for the waiting time for c complete series of types in the uniform case and a single complete series in the approximate nonuniform case.

Under a fourth-order moment condition on the branching and a second-order moment condition on the immigration mechanisms, we show that an appropriately scaled projection of a supercritical and irreducible continuous-state and continuous-time branching process with immigration on certain left non-Perron eigenvectors of the branching mean matrix is asymptotically mixed normal. With an appropriate random scaling, under some conditional probability measure, we prove asymptotic normality as well. In the case of a non-trivial process, under a first-order moment condition on the immigration mechanism, we also prove the convergence of the relative frequencies of distinct types of individuals on a suitable event; for instance, if the immigration mechanism does not vanish, then this convergence holds almost surely.

Taking the consideration of two-dimensional stochastic Navier–Stokes equations with multiplicative Lévy noises, where the noises intensities are related to the viscosity, a large deviation principle is established by using the weak convergence method skillfully, when the viscosity converges to 0. Due to the appearance of the jumps, it is difficult to close the energy estimates and obtain the desired convergence. Hence, one cannot simply use the weak convergence approach. To overcome the difficulty, one introduces special norms for new arguments and more careful analysis.

For a $\psi $ -mixing process $\xi _0,\xi _1,\xi _2,\ldots $ we consider the number ${\mathcal N}_N$ of multiple returns $\{\xi _{q_{i,N}(n)}\in {\Gamma }_N,\, i=1,\ldots ,\ell \}$ to a set ${\Gamma }_N$ for n until either a fixed number N or until the moment $\tau _N$ when another multiple return $\{\xi _{q_{i,N}(n)}\in {\Delta }_N,\, i=1,\ldots ,\ell \}$ , takes place for the first time where ${\Gamma }_N\cap {\Delta }_N=\emptyset $ and $q_{i,N}$ , $i=1,\ldots ,\ell $ are certain functions of n taking on non-negative integer values when n runs from 0 to N. The dependence of $q_{i,N}(n)$ on both n and N is the main novelty of the paper. Under some restrictions on the functions $q_{i,N}$ we obtain Poisson distributions limits of ${\mathcal N}_N$ when counting is until N as $N\to \infty $ and geometric distributions limits when counting is until $\tau _N$ as $N\to \infty $ . We obtain also similar results in the dynamical systems setup considering a $\psi $ -mixing shift T on a sequence space ${\Omega }$ and studying the number of multiple returns $\{ T^{q_{i,N}(n)}{\omega }\in A^a_n,\, i=1,\ldots ,\ell \}$ until the first occurrence of another multiple return $\{ T^{q_{i,N}(n)}{\omega }\in A^b_m,\, i=1,\ldots ,\ell \}$ where $A^a_n,\, A_m^b$ are cylinder sets of length n and m constructed by sequences $a,b\in {\Omega }$ , respectively, and chosen so that their probabilities have the same order.