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Almeida-Meza et al found an inverse correlation between cognitive reserve (associated with educational level, complexity of occupations and leisure activities) and dementia incidence. We suggest clarifying studies using their data-set and consider what can be done to modify socioeconomic inequalities that affect cognitive reserve or to slow early dementia.
This study aims to identify the risk factors associated with mortality and survival of COVID-19 cases in a state of the Brazilian Northeast. It is a historical cohort with a secondary database of 2070 people that presented flu-like symptoms, sought health assistance in the state and tested positive to COVID-19 until 14 April 2020, only moderate and severe cases were hospitalised. The main outcome was death as a binary variable (yes/no). It also investigated the main factors related to mortality and survival of the disease. Time since the beginning of symptoms until death/end of the survey (14 April 2020) was the time variable of this study. Mortality was analysed by robust Poisson regression, and survival by Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression. From the 2070 people that tested positive to COVID-19, 131 (6.3%) died and 1939 (93.7%) survived, the overall survival probability was 87.7% from the 24th day of infection. Mortality was enhanced by the variables: elderly (HR 3.6; 95% CI 2.3–5.8; P < 0.001), neurological diseases (HR 3.9; 95% CI 1.9–7.8; P < 0.001), pneumopathies (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–4.7; P < 0.001) and cardiovascular diseases (HR 8.9; 95% CI 5.4–14.5; P < 0.001). In conclusion, mortality by COVID-19 in Ceará is similar to countries with a large number of cases of the disease, although deaths occur later. Elderly people and comorbidities presented a greater risk of death.
Minority ethnic and migrant groups face an elevated risk of compulsory admission for mental illness. There are overlapping cultural, socio-demographic, and structural explanations for this risk that require further investigation.
By linking Swedish national register data, we established a cohort of persons first diagnosed with a psychotic disorder between 2001 and 2016. We used multilevel mixed-effects logistic modelling to investigate variation in compulsory admission at first diagnosis of psychosis across migrant and Swedish-born groups with individual and neighbourhood-level covariates.
Our cohort included 12 000 individuals, with 1298 (10.8%) admitted compulsorily. In an unadjusted model, being a migrant [odds ratio (OR) 1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26–1.73] or child of a migrant (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.10–1.47) increased risk of compulsory admission. However after multivariable modelling, region-of-origin provided a better fit to the data than migrant status; excess risk of compulsory admission was elevated for individuals from sub-Saharan African (OR 1.94; 95% CI 1.51–2.49), Middle Eastern and North African (OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.17–1.81), non-Nordic European (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.01–1.61), and mixed Swedish-Nordic backgrounds (OR 1.33; 95% CI 1.03–1.72). Risk of compulsory admission was greater in more densely populated neighbourhoods [OR per standard deviation (s.d.) increase in the exposure: 1.12, 95% CI 1.06–1.18], an effect that appeared to be driven by own-region migrant density (OR per s.d. increase in exposure: 1.12; 95% CI 1.02–1.24).
Inequalities in the risk of compulsory admission by migrant status, region-of-origin, urban living and own-region migrant density highlight discernible factors which raise barriers to equitable care and provide potential targets for intervention.
A novel coronavirus disease, designated as COVID-19, has become a pandemic worldwide. This study aims to estimate the incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19. We collected contact tracing data in a municipality in Hubei province during a full outbreak period. The date of infection and infector–infectee pairs were inferred from the history of travel in Wuhan or exposed to confirmed cases. The incubation periods and serial intervals were estimated using parametric accelerated failure time models, accounting for interval censoring of the exposures. Our estimated median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5.4 days (bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.8–6.0), and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles are 1 and 15 days, respectively; while the estimated serial interval of COVID-19 falls within the range of −4 to 13 days with 95% confidence and has a median of 4.6 days (95% CI 3.7–5.5). Ninety-five per cent of symptomatic cases showed symptoms by 13.7 days (95% CI 12.5–14.9). The incubation periods and serial intervals were not significantly different between male and female, and among age groups. Our results suggest a considerable proportion of secondary transmission occurred prior to symptom onset. And the current practice of 14-day quarantine period in many regions is reasonable.
Even though the impact of COVID-19 in metropolitan areas has been extensively studied, the geographic spread to smaller cities is also of great concern. We conducted an ecological study aimed at identifying predictors of early introduction, incidence rates of COVID-19 and mortality (up to 8 May 2020) among 604 municipalities in inner São Paulo State, Brazil. Socio-demographic indexes, road distance to the state capital and a classification of regional relevance were included in predictive models for time to COVID-19 introduction (Cox regression), incidence and mortality rates (zero-inflated binomial negative regression). In multivariable analyses, greater demographic density and higher classification of regional relevance were associated with both early introduction and increased rates of COVID-19 incidence and mortality. Other predictive factors varied, but distance from the State Capital (São Paulo City) was negatively associated with time-to-introduction and with incidence rates of COVID-19. Our results reinforce the hypothesis of two patterns of geographical spread of SARS-Cov-2 infection: one that is spatial (from the metropolitan area into the inner state) and another which is hierarchical (from urban centres of regional relevance to smaller and less connected municipalities). Those findings may apply to other settings, especially in developing and highly heterogeneous countries, and point to a potential benefit from strengthening non-pharmaceutical control strategies in areas of greater risk.
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, there is an ongoing debate and research regarding the possible ways of virus transmission. We conducted an epidemiological investigation which revealed a cluster of five COVID-19 cases, linked to playing squash at a sports venue in Maribor, Slovenia. Acquired data raises possibility that the transmission occurred indirectly through contaminated objects in changing room or squash hall or via aerosolisation in squash hall.
It has been claimed that functional somatic syndromes share a common etiology. This prospective population-based study assessed whether the same variables predict new onsets of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) and fibromyalgia (FM).
The study included 152 180 adults in the Dutch Lifelines study who reported the presence/absence of relevant syndromes at baseline and follow-up. They were screened at baseline for physical and psychological disorders, socio-demographic, psycho-social and behavioral variables. At follow-up (mean 2.4 years) new onsets of each syndrome were identified by self-report. We performed separate analyses for the three syndromes including participants free of the relevant syndrome or its key symptom at baseline. LASSO logistic regressions were applied to identify which of the 102 baseline variables predicted new onsets of each syndrome.
There were 1595 (1.2%), 296 (0.2%) and 692 (0.5%) new onsets of IBS, CFS, and FM, respectively. LASSO logistic regression selected 26, 7 and 19 predictors for IBS, CFS and FM, respectively. Four predictors were shared by all three syndromes, four predicted IBS and FM and two predicted IBS and CFS but 28 predictors were specific to a single syndrome. CFS was more distinct from IBS and FM, which predicted each other.
Syndrome-specific predictors were more common than shared ones and these predictors might form a better starting point to unravel the heterogeneous etiologies of these syndromes than the current approach based on symptom patterns. The close relationship between IBS and FM is striking and requires further research.
Lewy body dementia, consisting of both dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD), is considerably under-recognised clinically compared with its frequency in autopsy series.
This study investigated the clinical diagnostic pathways of patients with Lewy body dementia to assess if difficulties in diagnosis may be contributing to these differences.
We reviewed the medical notes of 74 people with DLB and 72 with non-DLB dementia matched for age, gender and cognitive performance, together with 38 people with PDD and 35 with Parkinson's disease, matched for age and gender, from two geographically distinct UK regions.
The cases of individuals with DLB took longer to reach a final diagnosis (1.2 v. 0.6 years, P = 0.017), underwent more scans (1.7 v. 1.2, P = 0.002) and had more alternative prior diagnoses (0.8 v. 0.4, P = 0.002), than the cases of those with non-DLB dementia. Individuals diagnosed in one region of the UK had significantly more core features (2.1 v. 1.5, P = 0.007) than those in the other region, and were less likely to have dopamine transporter imaging (P < 0.001). For patients with PDD, more than 1.4 years prior to receiving a dementia diagnosis: 46% (12 of 26) had documented impaired activities of daily living because of cognitive impairment, 57% (16 of 28) had cognitive impairment in multiple domains, with 38% (6 of 16) having both, and 39% (9 of 23) already receiving anti-dementia drugs.
Our results show the pathway to diagnosis of DLB is longer and more complex than for non-DLB dementia. There were also marked differences between regions in the thresholds clinicians adopt for diagnosing DLB and also in the use of dopamine transporter imaging. For PDD, a diagnosis of dementia was delayed well beyond symptom onset and even treatment.
According to the stress inoculation hypothesis, successfully navigating life stressors may improve one's ability to cope with subsequent stressors, thereby increasing psychiatric resilience.
Among individuals with no baseline history of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and/or major depressive disorder (MDD), to determine whether a history of a stressful life event protected participants against the development of PTSD and/or MDD after a natural disaster.
Analyses utilised data from a multiwave, prospective cohort study of adult Chilean primary care attendees (years 2003–2011; n = 1160). At baseline, participants completed the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), a comprehensive psychiatric diagnostic instrument, and the List of Threatening Experiences, a 12-item questionnaire that measures major stressful life events. During the study (2010), the sixth most powerful earthquake on record struck Chile. One year later (2011), the CIDI was re-administered to assess post-disaster PTSD and/or MDD.
Marginal structural logistic regressions indicated that for every one-unit increase in the number of pre-disaster stressors, the odds of developing post-disaster PTSD or MDD increased (OR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.08–1.37, and OR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.06–1.27 respectively). When categorising pre-disaster stressors, individuals with four or more stressors (compared with no stressors) had higher odds of developing post-disaster PTSD (OR = 2.77, 95% CI 1.52–5.04), and a dose–response relationship between pre-disaster stressors and post-disaster MDD was found.
In contrast to the stress inoculation hypothesis, results indicated that experiencing multiple stressors increased the vulnerability to developing PTSD and/or MDD after a natural disaster. Increased knowledge regarding the individual variations of these disorders is essential to inform targeted mental health interventions after a natural disaster, especially in under-studied populations.
To slow down the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it is important to identify specific symptoms for effective screening. While anosmia/hyposmia and dysgeusia/ageusia have been identified as highly prevalent symptoms, there are wide geographic variations, necessitating the regional evaluation of the prevalence of the symptoms.
A cross-sectional study was performed to evaluate the self-reported symptoms among adults (over 18 years old) who underwent COVID-19 tests at an ambulatory assessment centre. We identified 1,345 patients (102 positive and 1,243 negative) who visited the assessment centre between March 16 and April 15, 2020. We randomly sampled negative patients in a 1:3 ratio. The primary outcome was the prevalence of self-reported anosmia/hyposmia and dysgeusia/ageusia. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between COVID-19 positivity and loss of smell and taste.
Fifty-six of 102 (50%) positive patients and 72 of 306 (23.5%) negative patients completed the survey. Anosmia/hyposmia and dysgeusia/ageusia were more prevalent among COVID-19 positive patients (41.1% v. 4.2%, p < 0.001 for smell and 46.4% v. 5.6%, p < 0.001 for taste). Anosmia/hyposmia and dysgeusia/ageusia were independently highly associated with COVID-19 positivity (adjusted odds ratios 14.4 and 11.4 for smell and taste, respectively).
In this Canadian study, smell and taste loss may be key symptoms of COVID-19. This evidence can be helpful in the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, particularly settings of limited testing capacity.
During the first and second centuries of the Common Era the Christ cult spread from rural Palestine to the large cities of the Empire. This article draws insights from social network theory and from epidemiology, arguing that the Christ cult was not a simple contagion, spread by simple contact, but a ‘complex contagion’ that required persuasion, especially because adherence to the Christ cult entailed potential social costs and demanded high signalling costs.
Four Western countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal) with strong Orthodox and Catholic traditions have been associated with the underreporting of death by suicide, and underreported suicides are sometimes found among deaths recorded as ‘undetermined’ or ‘accidental’.
This population-based study tests whether there are any significant difference in patterns of suicides, undetermined deaths and accidental deaths between these four Western countries and 21 predominately Islamic countries.
World Health Organization age-standardised death rates per million population were used to compare suicide rates with combined undetermined death and accidental death (UnD+AccD) rates, from which odds ratios were calculated. Substantial odds ratios (OR > 2.0) were taken as indicative of likely underreporting of suicides. The Islamic countries come from four different historico-cultural regions, described as: less-traditional Islamic countries; former USSR countries; Gulf Arab states; and Middle Eastern and North African countries. χ2-tests were used to determine any significant differences between the Western comparator countries and the Islamic regions.
For the Western comparator countries, the average suicide rate was 66 per million population, the average undetermined death rate 56 per million and the average accidental death rate 58 per million, yielding a suicide:UnD+AccD odds ratio (OR) of 1.73. The average values for the other three groups were as follows. Less-traditional Islamic countries: suicide rate, 31 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 101 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 3.3. Former USSR countries: suicide rate, 61 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 221 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 3.6. Gulf Arab states: suicide rate, 10 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 76 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 8.6. Middle Eastern and North African countries: suicide rate, 6 per million; UnD+AccD rate, 151 per million; suicide:UnD+AccD OR = 25.2. The patterns of these mortalities in the Islamic countries was significantly different from Western comparator countries.
The results indicate underreporting of suicides in Islamic countries. This might inadvertently lead to reduced access to mental health preventive services in both Western and Islamic countries.
Individual- and area-level risk factors for suicide are relatively well-understood but the role of macro social factors such as alienation, social fragmentation or ‘anomie’ is relatively underresearched. Voting choice in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union (EU) provides a potential measure of anomie.
To examine associations between percentage ‘Leave’ votes in the EU referendum and suicide rates in 2015–2017, the period just prior to, and following, the referendum.
National cross-sectional ecological study of 315 English local authority populations. Associations between voting choice in the EU referendum and age-standardised suicide rates, averaged for the years 2015, 2016 and 2017, were examined.
Overall there was a weak, but statistically significant, positive correlation between the local authority-level percentage ‘Leave’ vote in 2016 and the suicide rate 2015–2017: Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.17; P = 0.003. This relationship was explained by populations having an older age distribution, being more deprived and lacking ethnic diversity. However, there was divergence (likelihood ratio test for interaction, χ2 = 7.2, P = 0.007) in the observed associations between London and the provincial regions with Greater London having a moderately strong negative association (r = −0.40; P = 0.02) and the rest of England a weak positive association (r = 0.17; P = 0.004).
Deprivation, older age distribution and a lack of ethnic diversity seems to explain raised suicide risk in Brexit-voting communities. A greater sense of alienation among people feeling ‘left behind’/‘left out’ may have had some influence too, although multilevel modelling of individual- versus area-level data are needed to examine these complex relationships. The incongruent ecological relationship observed for London likely reflect its distinct social, economic and health context.
Firefighting service is known to involve high rates of exposure to potentially traumatic situations, and research on mental health in firefighting populations is of critical importance in understanding the impact of occupational exposure. To date, the literature concerning prevalence of trauma-related mental disorders such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has not distinguished between symptomology associated routine duty-related exposure and exposure to large-scale disaster. The present systematic review synthesizes a heterogeneous cross-national literature on large-scale disaster exposure in firefighters and provides support for the hypothesis that the prevalence of PTSD, major depressive disorder, and anxiety disorders are elevated in firefighters compared with rates observed in the general population. In addition, we conducted narrative synthesis concerning several commonly assessed predictive factors for disorder and found that sociodemographic factors appear to bear a weak relationship to mental disorder, while incident-related factors, such as severity and duration of disaster exposure, bear a stronger and more consistent relationship to the development of PTSD and depression in cross-national samples. Future work should expand on these preliminary findings to better understand the impact of disaster exposure in firefighting personnel.
Children in armed conflict are frequently deprived of basic needs, psychologically supportive environments, educational and vocational opportunities, and other resources that promote positive psychosocial development and mental health. This article describes the mental health challenges faced by conflict-affected children and youth, the interventions designed to prevent or ameliorate the psychosocial impact of conflict-related experiences, and a case example of the challenges and opportunities related to addressing the mental health needs of Rohingya children and youth.
Studies have shown that there are overlapping traits and symptoms between autism and psychosis but no study to date has addressed this association from an epidemiological approach in the adult general population. Furthermore, it is not clear whether autistic traits are associated with specific symptoms of psychosis or with psychosis in general. We assess these associations for the first time by using the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (APMS) 2007 and the APMS 2014, predicting an association between autistic traits and probable psychosis, and specific associations between autistic traits and paranoia and strange experiences.
Participants (N = 7353 in 2007 and 7500 in 2014) completed the Psychosis Screening Questionnaire (PSQ) and a 20-item version of the Autism Quotient (AQ-20). Binomial logistic regressions were performed using AQ-20 as the independent variable and probable psychosis and specific symptoms as dependent variables.
In the APMS 2007 dataset, significant associations were found between autism traits and probable psychosis, paranoia, thought insertion, and strange experiences. These results were replicated in APMS 2014 but with the additional significant association between autistic traits and hallucinations. Participants in the highest quartile of the AQ-20, compared with the lowest quartile, had an increased risk of probable psychosis of odds ratio (OR) = 15.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.57–52.6] in APMS 2007 and OR = 22.5 (95% CI 7.64–66.3) in APMS 2014.
Autistic traits are strongly associated with probable psychosis and psychotic experiences with the exception of mania. Limitations such as the cross-sectional nature of the study are discussed.
Symptoms of mental disorder, particularly schizophrenia, predispose to victimization. Much less is known about the relationship between depressive symptoms and later victimization in the general population, the influence of these symptoms on types of subsequent victimization, or the role of symptom severity. We investigated this in nationally representative data from the United Kingdom.
Data were from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2007. Multivariable logistic regressions estimated association between (a) prior depressive symptoms, (b) prior depressive symptoms with suicide attempt, and types of more recent victimization. Gender-specific associations were estimated using multiplicative interactions.
Prior depressive symptoms were associated with greater odds of any recent intimate partner violence (IPV), emotional IPV, sexual victimization, workplace victimization, any victimization, and cumulative victimization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for increasing types of recent victimization: 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14, 1.89). Prior depressive symptoms with suicide attempt were associated with any recent IPV, emotional IPV, any victimization, and cumulative victimization (aOR for increasing types of recent victimization: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.22, 4.44). Self reported recalled data on previous depressive symptoms may have limited accuracy. Small numbers of outcomes for some comparisons results in imprecision of these estimates.
Aside from severe mental illness such as schizophrenia, previous depressive symptoms in the general population are associated with greater subsequent victimization. Men and women with prior depressive symptoms may be vulnerable to a range of types of victimization, and may benefit from interventions to reduce this vulnerability.
In December, 2019, an infection outbreak occurred in Wuhan of unknown cause, which attracts intense attention. Shortly after the virus was identified with the name of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2), the epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out and an information storm occurred. At that time, two important aspects: the stage and the links of epidemic, were unclear. Answers to the questions, what are the sources, how do infections occur, and who will be affected should be clarified as the outbreak continues to evolve. Furthermore, the epidemic process and the stage of epidemic should be explored and discussed. Based on information of SARS, middle east respiratory syndrome(MERS) and COVID-19, the links of epidemic (the sources, the routes of infection, and the susceptible population) will be discussed as well as the role of the natural and the social factors. Epidemiology characteristics of patients will be traced based on current information.
Back-projection is an epidemiological analysis method that was developed to estimate HIV incidence using surveillance data on AIDS diagnoses. It was used extensively during the 1990s for this purpose as well as in other epidemiological contexts. Surveillance data on COVID-19 diagnoses can be analysed by the method of back-projection using information about the probability distribution of the time between infection and diagnosis, which is primarily determined by the incubation period. This paper demonstrates the value of such analyses using daily diagnoses from Australia. It is shown how back-projection can be used to assess the pattern of COVID-19 infection incidence over time and to assess the impact of control measures by investigating their temporal association with changes in incidence patterns. For Australia, these analyses reveal that peak infection incidence coincided with the introduction of border closures and social distancing restrictions, while the introduction of subsequent social distancing measures coincided with a continuing decline in incidence to very low levels. These associations were not directly discernible from the daily diagnosis counts, which continued to increase after the first stage of control measures. It is estimated that a one week delay in peak incidence would have led to a fivefold increase in total infections. Furthermore, at the height of the outbreak, half to three-quarters of all infections remained undiagnosed. Automated data analytics of routinely collected surveillance data are a valuable monitoring tool for the COVID-19 pandemic and may be useful for calibrating transmission dynamics models.
The current study aimed to evaluate the association of major dietary patterns with anxiety in middle-aged adults in eastern China.
Dietary intake was assessed using a semi-quantitative FFQ. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to estimate OR and 95 % CI for anxiety according to quartiles of each dietary pattern score.
Evidence regarding the relationship between dietary patterns and anxiety in the Chinese population is scarce.
The study participants were 1360 Chinese adults aged 45–59 years, who participated in a health survey at the time of periodic check-up in the city of Linyi, Shandong Province, China.
Four major dietary patterns were identified by factor analysis: traditional Chinese, western, grains–vegetables and high-salt diets. After adjusting for potential confounders, participants in the highest quartile of the western pattern had greater odds for anxiety, compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR 1·35, 95 % CI 1·000, 3·086, P < 0·05). In contrast, participants in the highest quartile of the grains–vegetables pattern had lower odds for anxiety than did those in the lowest quartile (OR 0·78, 95 % CI 0·574, 1·000, P < 0·05). Moreover, no significant associations were observed between the traditional Chinese and high-salt patterns and the risk of anxiety.
Our findings indicate that the western pattern is associated with an increased risk, and the grains–vegetables pattern is associated with a decreased risk of anxiety.