How do you choose among possible acts? The most common decision rule is an obvious one. Perform the action with the highest expected value. There are, however, a few more paradoxes connected with this simple rule.
RISKY DECISIONS
Logic analyzes reasons and arguments. We can give reasons for our beliefs. We can also give reasons for our actions and our decisions. What is the best thing to do under the circumstances? Inductive logic analyzes risky arguments. It also helps with decision theory, the theory of making risky decisions.
Should I go out in a thunderstorm to fetch a book, even though I am scared of lightning? I go out in a thunderstorm because I believe I left a book outside. I believe it will get wet and be ruined. I also believe I will not be struck by lightning. But I also go outside because I want the book, among other things. Of course, my beliefs are not certainties–I am pretty confident I left the book there. I am pretty sure it will get wet if it is there. I know it is not probable that I will be hit by lightning.
Decisions depend on two kinds of thing:
▪ What we believe.
▪ What we want.
Sometimes we can represent our degrees of belief or confidence by probabilities. Sometimes we can represent what we want by dollar values, or at least by judgments of value, which we call utilities.
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