Challenges in Intelligence Analysis Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present

There are many definitions of intelligence analysis, often using as a starting point the views of Sherman Kent, the founder of the profession of intelligence analysis in the United States, who wrote that that it can be an organization, a process, or a product. Others see intelligence analysis as solving puzzles. Grappling with conundrums is part of what analysts do, but just finding a solution is not the main goal. Still others emphasize that dealing with secret and tightly controlled information, such as from spies or satellites, is what is important about intelligence analysis. This may have been true during the Cold War but is much less so in the age of the Internet, when vast amounts of data that could be useful are readily available. Moreover, many people in business and law enforcement use analytic techniques effectively without recourse to secret sources or methods.

The perspective in Challenges in Intelligence Analysis: Lessons from 1300 BCE to the Present, therefore, is that what is unique and important about intelligence analysis is that it supports decision making. This is especially the case when the decision maker is dealing with difficult problems, high stakes, and intense pressure to get it right. Although having quality data, including possibly secret data, is important, analyses can be effective without any secret input. What is really crucial about intelligence analysis is how one thinks about the problem, including factors such as the identifying the main issues, evaluating the evidence, and laying out the options and risks.