Cost–benefit analysis almost always requires the analyst to predict the future. Whether it is efficient to begin a project depends on what one expects will happen after the project has begun. Yet, analysts can rarely make precise predictions about the future. Indeed, in some cases, analysts can reasonably assume that uncontrollable factors, such as epidemics, floods, bumper crops, or fluctuations in international oil prices, will affect the benefits and costs that would be realized from proposed policies. How can analysts reasonably take account of these uncertainties in CBA?
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