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Case 11: Using Monte Carlo Simulation: Assessing the Net Benefits of Early Detection of Alzheimer’s Disease

Case 11: Using Monte Carlo Simulation: Assessing the Net Benefits of Early Detection of Alzheimer’s Disease

pp. 308-314

Authors

, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, , University of Maryland, Baltimore County, , Simon Fraser University, British Columbia, , University of Wisconsin, Madison
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Summary

Alzheimer’s disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, currently affects at least 5 percent of the US population aged 65 years and older. This chronic progressive neurodegenerative disorder increases in prevalence with age, affecting almost half of those persons aged 85 and older. Aging of the US population will likely increase the prevalence of AD from a total of about 5 million people today to 14 million people by 2050.1 The expected rapid increase in the number of persons with AD will translate into higher public and private long-term care costs paid by households, the Medicaid program, and long-term care insurers. Although studies have estimated a wide range of total annual costs to the US economy resulting from AD, the most plausible estimates now have surpassed two-hundred billion dollars.2

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