Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models

Multilevel modeling is applied to logistic regression and other generalized linear models in the same way as with linear regression: the coefficients are grouped into batches and a probability distribution is assigned to each batch. Or, equivalently (as discussed in Section 12.5), error terms are added to the model corresponding to different sources of variation in the data. We shall discuss logistic regression in this chapter and other generalized linear models in the next.

State-level opinions from national polls

Dozens of national opinion polls are conducted by media organizations before every election, and it is desirable to estimate opinions at the levels of individual states as well as for the entire country. These polls are generally based on national randomdigit dialing with corrections for nonresponse based on demographic factors such as sex, ethnicity, age, and education.

Here we describe a model developed for estimating state-level opinions from national polls, while simultaneously correcting for nonresponse, for any survey response of interest. The procedure has two steps: first fitting the model and then applying the model to estimate opinions by state:

1. We fit a regression model for the individual response y given demographics and state. This model thus estimates an average response θl for each cross-classification l of demographics and state. In our example, we have sex (male or female), ethnicity (African American or other), age (4 categories), education (4 categories), and 51 states (including the District of Columbia); thus l = 1, …, L = 3264 categories.

2. […]