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What role did nomadic and non-settled societies play in the early twentieth-century world economy? Exploring a remote mountain valley close to the border between the Russian and Qing empires, this article investigates the multiscalar history of the Karkara trade fair and its Kazakh and Kyrgyz pastoralist communities. Although at first sight incongruous given its remote location, this market was in fact one of the most significant fairs in the entire Russian empire. Tracing dynamic circuits of exchange on local, regional, and trans-imperial scales across northern Eurasia and beyond from the 1890s to 1916, the article argues that ecological perspectives are essential if we are to understand the anatomy of global capitalism in the valley, and that the shifting relationship between environment, economy, and political power as the Russian imperial state sought to use the fair as a site of control and regulation created frictions that proved deeply corrosive. Throughout, the article underscores the need to re-evaluate the often overlooked importance of pastoralist societies and seemingly remote rural places in the early twentieth-century global economy and in modern Eurasian history.
This article provides a general asymptotic theory for mildly explosive autoregression. We confirm that Cauchy limit theory remains invariant across a broad range of error processes, including general linear processes with martingale difference innovations, stationary causal processes, and nonlinear autoregressive time series, such as threshold autoregressive and bilinear models. Our results unify the Cauchy limit theory for long memory, short memory, and anti-persistent innovations within a single framework. Notably, we demonstrate that in the presence of anti-persistent innovations, the Cauchy limit theory may be violated when the regression coefficient approaches the local-to-unity range. Additionally, we explore extensions to models with varying drift, which is of significant interest in its own right.
AVATAR therapy, a digitally supported intervention, utilises avatars to promote recovery in people who experience distressing auditory hallucinations. This approach was recently evaluated in a multicentre randomised controlled trial comparing brief (AV-BRF) and extended (AV-EXT) forms of therapy with treatment as usual (TAU). There was evidence for the effectiveness of therapy, particularly for AV-EXT. However, value for money needs to be assessed.
Aims
To compare separately the cost utility of the brief and extended forms of AVATAR therapy with TAU.
Method
In a three-arm randomised controlled trial the use of health services was measured, and costs (2021/2022; pounds sterling) calculated from a health and social care perspective over a 28-week follow-up period. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs; derived from the 5-level version of the EuroQol 5-Dimension questionnaire) were combined with costs.
Results
AV-BRF resulted in extra costs of £319 (95% CI, −£1558 to £2496), and AV-EXT in lower costs of £1965 (95% CI, −£1912 to £1519), compared with TAU. Over the follow-up, AV-BRF resulted in 0.0159 (95% CI, −0.0103 to 0.0422) and AV-EXT in 0.0173 (95% CI, −0.0049 to 0.0395) more QALYs than TAU. The cost per QALY for AV-BRF compared with TAU was £20 016, while AV-EXT dominated TAU (lower costs and more QALYs).
Conclusions
Neither version of AVATAR had a substantial impact on QALYs. However, AV-EXT did result in reduced care costs − albeit not statistically significant − and was potentially cost-effective compared with TAU. AV-BRF had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that indicated lower potential cost-effectiveness. These findings are uncertain, but could still inform decision-making regarding interventions in this field.
Let C and W be two sets of integers. If $C+W=\mathbb {Z}$, then C is called an additive complement to W. We further call C a minimal additive complement to W if no proper subset of C is an additive complement to W. Answering a problem of Nathanson in part, we give sufficient conditions to show that W has no minimal additive complements. Our result extends a result of Chen and Yang [‘On a problem of Nathanson related to minimal additive complements’, SIAM J. Discrete Math.26 (2012), 1532–1536].
High uncertainty in recent global health, geopolitical, and climate crises has been proposed as one important driver of the rise in youth mental health problems. This makes intolerance of uncertainty – a transdiagnostic risk factor for mental health problems – a promising target for intervention.
Methods
This study presents a novel single-session online training that took a synergistic mindset approach to promote uncertainty-as-adaptive and growth mindsets. The novel Uncertainty-Mindset Training was compared with Psychoeducation and No-Training control groups in 259 older adolescents/emerging adults (18-to-24-year-olds).
Results
The Uncertainty-Mindset Training reduced intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety symptoms, and depression symptoms 1 month later. Importantly, the clinical gains were mediated by reductions in intolerance of uncertainty.
Conclusions
Given that this ultra-brief training can be delivered at scale globally and at no cost to the users, it shows promise for significant public health impacts.
No existing model of political rhetoric fully captures the complex interplay between the mainstream-populism divide and appealing to emotions like fear and anger. We present a new conceptualization and procedure that defines populism in relation to governmentalism, operationalizes both through communication frames, and allows for the analysis of emotions. We separate governmentalist-populist contestation from contestation between government and opposition, solving a longstanding theoretical and empirical problem. Analyzing one million tweets by politicians and their audiences, we fine-tune and employ supervised machine learning (transformer models) to classify populist and governmentalist communication. We find that populist tweets appeal more to anger and more to fear than governmentalist tweets. While we deploy our approach for tweets about Coronavirus in the UK, the procedure is transferable to other contexts and communication platforms.
This article examines the role of illustrated lantern lectures in promoting Belgian cities and towns during the early twentieth century. Drawing on two original databases of lantern slides and a database of lantern lectures, it demonstrates how these lectures served not only tourism, but also broader social, political and cultural agendas. The projection lantern functioned as a powerful medium within an emerging circuit of education and entertainment, offering audiences an immersive experience. While previous scholarship has largely focused on colonial or exotic representations, this article highlights how familiar, domestic places in Belgium were also visually constructed and promoted. Through an analysis of content, context and the actors involved, the article reveals how lantern lectures contributed to shaping urban imagery, fostering civic pride and constructing local, regional and national identities. In doing so, it repositions the lantern as a key medium in the history of place representation and visual communication.
Although design research is a relatively recent academic field, it has developed several influential typologies over the past decades. This study conducts a systematic review to evaluate how design research approaches relate to the design process, with a specific focus on two overlooked dimensions: the point of research integration in design and the research attitude guiding the inquiry. Drawing on foundational models by Frayling, Cross and Buchanan, the paper proposes a conceptual framework that cross-analyzes research typologies with these two dimensions. Seventy peer-reviewed studies in architecture and related disciplines were identified and analyzed through PRISMA guidelines and Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist. The findings reveal four distinct clusters: (1) research about design – basic research – design epistemology, (2) research through design – applied research – design praxeology, (3) research for design – clinical research – design phenomenology and (4) a fourth category, research through design (II) – applied research – design epistemology. Moreover, five research attitudes were identified across the studies: practitioner, practitioner with user, practitioner with AI, researcher and user. These findings provide a more nuanced understanding of how design knowledge is produced in architectural research.
This longitudinal study examined the impact of L2 acquisition on the narrative development of L1-Turkish dominant children who were exposed to L2-English immersion compared to their peers who were not exposed to L2-English immersion but to L1-Turkish. The study involved 155 children, aged 5, 7, and 9 at Time 1, assessing their narrative production, linguistic complexity, and narrative comprehension over a one-year period. Children who were exposed to L2-English immersion received intensive L2-English instruction from a young age while living in an L1-Turkish dominant society. For both time points, L2-English immersion children performed better than L1-Turkish dominant children for L1 narrative production. While no overall group differences emerged in linguistic complexity, L2-English immersion children exhibited higher complexity in L1 relative to their L2 for both time points, suggesting a facilitative effect of early L2 exposure on L1 narrative structure. These findings support the idea that bilingualism may foster narrative skills. These results highlight the importance of early bilingual education, especially when both languages are equally supported, contributing to children’s overall language development.
How do political parties balance policy adaptation with ideological continuity? While spatial models emphasise external factors driving party behaviour, less attention has been given to internal party choices. This article innovates by proposing that parties differentiate between and make distinct strategical decisions regarding their ideological core and peripheral policy areas. We argue that parties maintain continuity in their ideological core while exhibiting greater flexibility in modifying their periphery. Using the Manifesto Project Corpus and an XLM-RoBERTa-based language model, we analyse manifesto sections to distinguish core from peripheral segments. Our findings show that parties take clearer stances in their ideological core while adapting their periphery more flexibly, with niche parties displaying this pattern more strongly than mainstream parties. Electoral setbacks lead parties to adopt more extreme peripheries, while cores remain stable. These results highlight the strategic importance of the core–periphery distinction in party communication and suggest that studies of party competition should consider where policy shifts occur within parties’ electoral programmes.
In this contribution, I examine how investment tribunals have addressed the issues of recognition and identifying governments. While these questions may arise in different situations (for instance, in the context of the civil war in Yemen1), I will focus on claims arising from events occurring during the civil war in Libya because they have been examined frequently by tribunals.2 I will examine the Cengiz case and briefly mention other cases dealing with related procedural questions. I will explain that the Cengiz Tribunal has failed to properly apply some of the most fundamental principles of international law regulating government recognition/identification.
The E(xtended) P(rojection) P(rinciple) (specifically, in its guise as a movement-triggering feature in designated syntactic heads), has been a thorn in the Minimalist side since the mid-1990s. Recently, in the context of attempts to reduce syntactic mechanisms to their minimal expression, the generative operation Merge has been defined as unordered set formation (“Simplest Merge”), and the EPP has been pronounced dead in favour of conditions over labelling which force phrasal movement in order to dissolve ‘symmetry points’. This article compares several theoretical analyses and shows that very simple cases of {XP, YP} copular constructions in Spanish satisfy all requirements for labelling without the need to resort to Internal Merge (IM). Therefore, if there is IM of a DP it must be motivated by reasons other than labelling. Once such a reason exists, the elimination of EPP on labelling grounds becomes dubious.
This essay argues, through the example of state representation in arbitral proceedings, that the specific legal context in which recognition of governments occurs influences the outcome of the process and might lead to the application of a different set of criteria than in state-to-state relations. It engages in particular with arbitral decisions concerning the issue of which government can represent the state in the proceedings, which emerged with some prominence after 2019 in relation to Venezuela and Yemen. These decisions were rendered in a politically charged atmosphere, where two entities were competing for the acknowledgment of the arbitral tribunals as the sole representative of the state party in the arbitral proceedings. Each of the entities claimed to be the legitimate representative of the state, and they all enjoyed varying degrees of recognition in the international community.
Two-way diffusion equations arising in kinetic problems relating to electron scattering and in Brownian particle dynamics present singularities absent from conventional diffusion equations. Although calculations by Stein & Bernstein, and Fisch & Kruskal have revealed the formation of entry and exit slope discontinuities at the critical points where the velocity changes sign, the analytical structure of these discontinuities remains unclear. Here we fill this gap via a local similarity variable analysis, illustrated through the two-way diffusion equation $y \partial n/\partial x=\partial ^2 n/\partial y^2$ in $-1 \leq y \leq 1$; $0 \leq x \leq L$, with $n(x,\pm 1)=0$ with various entry conditions $n(0,y)_{y\gt 0}$, and the exit condition $n(L,y)_{y\lt 0}=0$. The similarity variable $\eta =y/x^{1/3}$ permits the analytical characterization of the entry discontinuity, except for constants determined by matching with numerical solutions obtained with two numerical schemes: separation of variables following the construction of Beals, or finite-difference discretization of the transient partial differential equation, which converges in time to a solution almost identical to the separation of variables solution. Although the slope discontinuity depends markedly on the initial condition $n(0,y)_{y\gt 0}$, a simple general similarity solution structure emerges empirically, always involving a spontaneous singular contribution $C |y|^{1/2}$ at $x=0,y\lt 0$. Slow convergence of both numerical solutions near $\{x,y\}=\{0,0\}$ is attributed to the poor eigenfunction representation of the ever-present singular solution component $|y|^{1/2}$. The similarity approach applies equally to other two-way diffusion equations when the coefficient of $\partial n/\partial x$ changes sign linearly with $y$. It can also be extended to situations where this coefficient is discontinuous at the critical points.
The highest-elevation and a far southern pond in the Transantarctic Mountains is briefly documented. The small pond, at an elevation of ~2350 m, was frozen when it was visited in the 1963–1964 field season, and satellite imagery suggests it has remained frozen since 2010. A second frozen pond is noted, but its precise location is uncertain.
Research on the implementation of social policy is scant compared to research on other policy stages. Reasons like the lack of the necessary time and resources to conduct implementation research explains such gap. Yet, without research on implementation, it is impossible to reach comprehensive, deep and accurate understandings of the effects of public interventions on the welfare of the population. This article introduces the special issue on the dynamics of social policy implementation in Latin America and Southern Europe, prepared with the aim of addressing the gap and contributing to the current research on the topic. The two regions include countries with social policies and welfare regimes that share several historical, institutional and political contexts and legacies, and provide critical cases to test existing theories and models of public policy implementation. The special issue consists of nine articles that cover eight case studies from Argentina, Brazil, Italy, Peru and Spain, plus an article that provides an overview of current implementation trends in the two regions. The comparison of findings from the case studies reveals significant insights on social policy implementation, like a positive effect of the discretion that street-level bureaucrats exert in their daily activities to compensate for weak formal institutions and limited resources, and the opportunities created for the improvement of implementation outcomes by the incorporation of civil society actors in co-production activities.