The conditional expectation $m_{X}(s)=\mathrm{E}[X|S=s]$, where X and Y are two independent random variables with $S=X+Y$, plays a key role in various actuarial applications. For instance, considering the conditional mean risk-sharing rule, $m_X(s)$ determines the contribution of the agent holding the risk X to a risk-sharing pool. It is also a relevant function in the context of risk management, for example, when considering natural capital allocation principles. The monotonicity of $m_X(\!\cdot\!)$ is particularly significant under these frameworks, and it has been linked to log-concave densities since Efron (1965). However, the log-concavity assumption may not be realistic in some applications because it excludes heavy-tailed distributions. We consider random variables with regularly varying densities to illustrate how heavy tails can lead to a nonmonotonic behavior for $m_X(\!\cdot\!)$. This paper first aims to identify situations where $m_X(\!\cdot\!)$ could fail to be increasing according to the tail heaviness of X and Y. Second, the paper aims to study the asymptotic behavior of $m_X(s)$ as the value s of the sum gets large. The analysis is then extended to zero-augmented probability distributions, commonly encountered in applications to insurance, and to sums of more than two random variables and to two random variables with a Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern copula. Consequences for risk sharing and capital allocation are discussed. Many numerical examples illustrate the results.

A growing number of studies use “real” effort designs for laboratory experiments where subjects complete an actual task to exert effort rather than using a stylized effort design where subjects simply choose an effort level from a predefined set. The commonly argued reason for real effort is that it makes the results more generalizable and field relevant. We investigate the nature of modeling effort provision by first trying to provide a clear theoretical understanding of the nature of effort costs. We then empirically examine claims about the differences between real effort and stylized effort. A key to our examination is ensuring that we compare the two modes of effort provision keeping effort costs constant, which is a point overlooked in many past examinations. In our data, when controlling for effort costs, we find no differences in behavior between real and stylized effort. Given the importance of effort costs and the lack of a generally accepted way to include them in real effort designs, we provide a simple add-on that any researcher can use with their real effort experiments to incorporate a theoretically appropriate and controlled cost of effort even in a real effort setting. We also discuss ways to better approach modeling effort costs in experiments, whether one is conducting real or stylized designs, to improve inference on research questions.

Disappointment aversion has been suggested as an explanation for non-truthful rankings in strategy-proof school-choice matching mechanisms. We test this hypothesis using a novel experimental design that eliminates important alternative causes of non-truthful rankings. The design uses a simple contingent choice task with only two possible outcomes. Between two treatments, we manipulate the possibility for disappointment aversion to have an effect on ranking. We find a small and statistically marginally significant treatment effect in the direction predicted by disappointment aversion. We therefore conclude that disappointment aversion is a minor contributor to non-truthful rankings in strategy-proof school-choice matching mechanisms.

Recent observations have shown a fast decrease in thickness and area of Pyrenean glaciers in some cases leading to a stagnation of ice flow. However, their transition to a new paraglacial stage is not well understood. Through the combination of uncrewed aerial vehicles imagery, airborne LiDAR, ground-penetrating radar and ground temperature observations, we characterized the recent evolution of Infiernos Glacier. In 2021, this glacier had small sectors thicker than 25 m, but most of area did not exceed 10 m. The thickness losses from 2011 to 2023 reached 9 m in average, of which 5 m occurring during the period 2020–23. This trend demonstrates the significant ice melt under current climatic conditions. In the last years, the glacier has also shown a remarkable increase of debris cover extent. In these areas, the ice loss was reduced by half when compared to the thickness decrease in the entire glacier. Sub-freezing ground temperatures evidence the highly probable presence of permafrost or buried ice in the surroundings of the glacier. The clear signs of ice stagnation and the magnitude of area and thickness decrease support the main hypothesis of this work: After 2023, the Infiernos Glacier can no longer be considered a glacier and has become an ice patch.

How does a politician’s gender shape citizen responses to performance in office? Much of the existing literature suggests that voters hold higher expectations of women politicians and are more likely to punish them for malfeasance. An alternative perspective suggests that voters view men politicians as more agentic and are, therefore, more responsive to their performance, whether good or bad. Using an online survey experiment in Argentina, we randomly assign respondents to information that the distribution of a government food programme in a hypothetical city is biased or unbiased, and we also randomly assign the gender of the mayor. We find that respondents are more responsive to performance information – both positive and negative – about men mayors. We find little evidence that respondents hold different expectations of malfeasance by men versus women politicians. These results contribute to our understanding of how citizens process performance information in a context with few women politicians.

We document the first recorded nesting attempt by a green sea-turtle (Chelonia mydas) in Pemba located in the Cabo Delgado Province of northern Mozambique – an urban area with a population of 200,529 inhabitants. This sighting expands the known nesting range of sea-turtles by 40 km south of the Quirimbas Archipelago, highlighting Pemba’s potential as a critical nesting site. In July 2021, local fishermen were observed by a tourism operator killing the turtle and selling its meat. Consequently, the absence of eggs at the presumed nesting site suggests that the turtle was intercepted before it could lay eggs. This incident highlights the threats to sea-turtles and the need for conservation while emphasising the importance of collaboration among communities, government, and researchers to protect nesting activity.

The use of religious symbols has sparked heated debate and numerous judicial cases across Europe. Early case law from the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) has been criticised for allegedly employing biased discourses. However, it remains unclear whether such biased discourses are present in recent ECtHR rulings or in comparable decisions by the European Court of Justice (ECJ). This article applies Critical Discourse Analysis, a linguistic and social science approach, to examine the narratives used by the ECtHR and ECJ in cases involving religious symbols. It argues that religious and gender biases are pervasive in ECtHR judgements. While the ECJ generally employs neutral language, biased discourses occasionally emerge in the ‘subtext’ of its decisions. These biases are not incidental but serve as strategic tools within judicial narratives, reinforcing the argumentative legitimacy of rulings for audiences influenced by societal prejudices.

During speech production, bilinguals need to encode target words phonologically before articulation, and the encoding units differ across languages. It remains an open question whether bilinguals employ the encoding unit in their L1 or L2 for phonological encoding. The present study examined the primary unit of phonological encoding in L2 speech production by Mandarin Chinese-English bilinguals with high and low L2 proficiency using the picture-word interference paradigm. Results revealed segmental priming effects with one or two segments and syllabic overlap at varied stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs), for both groups in their L2 speech production. Additionally, the results demonstrated increasing effects with more overlapping segments for both groups, and the facilitation effects decreased as SOA increased. These results indicate that bilinguals encode English words with the segment as a primary planning unit regardless of their L2 proficiency. The time course of segmental encoding in L2 production is also discussed.

This article examines the pioneering contributions of a generation of women civil servants, diplomats, and intellectuals—referred to as Cepalinas—to economic thought at the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL) between the late 1960s and early 1980s. These women experts, including statisticians, economists, sociologists, and demographers, played a critical role in reshaping CEPAL’s development agenda by advocating for the integration of gender perspectives into regional policies. Through extensive fieldwork and data collection, they highlighted the economic and social contributions of women, particularly those from marginalised communities, and challenged the prevailing male-dominated models of development. Despite the progress made following the 1975 UN International Conference on Women, the Cepalinas often remained on the periphery of institutional power and have been largely overlooked in the historiography. This article brings their work to the forefront, analysing their publications and mission reports to reveal how their efforts transformed both the Commission’s economic frameworks and broader global development policies.

Spatial intensity modulation in amplified laser beams, particularly hot spots, critically constrains attainable pulse peak power due to the damage threshold limitations of four-grating compressors. This study demonstrates that the double-smoothing grating compressor (DSGC) configuration effectively suppresses modulation through directional beam smoothing. Our systematic investigation validated the double-smoothing effect through numerical simulations and experimental measurements, with comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis revealing excellent agreement between numerical and practical pulse characteristics. Crucially, the DSGC enables a 1.74 times energy output boost compared to conventional compressors. These findings establish the DSGC as a pivotal advancement for next-generation ultrahigh-power laser systems, providing a viable pathway toward hundreds of PW output through optimized spatial energy redistribution.

This article takes a worm’s eye view of the National Endowments for the Humanities and the Arts and comments on the political realities that inform their operations. My work as a scholar and an applied theater practitioner with Aquila Theatre received program support from both agencies and has represented them at the White House, US Capitol, and US Supreme Court. I suggest that the traditional division that exists between arts and humanities, as reflected in the policies of both endowments, should be erased for the betterment of public-facing humanities, and, as a humanities program director, I want to address the structural problems of fundraising and the politics of money that inform the granting decisions of these US federal agencies.

In the aftermath of the 2022 Dobbs v Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision on access to reproductive healthcare, we published a commentary in this journal to inform the infectious diseases (ID) community about anticipated worsening of maternal and neonatal sepsis outcomes and relevant stewardship and healthcare associated infection issues. Three years later, we seek to keep the ID community engaged with important updates and intensify their commitment to providing high-quality care and reduce disparate health outcomes in this vulnerable population.

It is often argued that when legislators have personal vote-seeking incentives, parties are less unified because legislators need to build bonds of accountability with their voters. I argue that these effects depend on a legislator’s ability to cultivate a personal vote. When parties control access to the ballot and the resources candidates need to cultivate personal votes, they can condition a legislator’s access to these resources on loyalty to the party’s agenda. I test this theory by conducting a difference-in-differences analysis that leverages the staggered implementation of the 2014 Mexican Electoral Reform. This reform introduced the possibility of consecutive reelection for state legislators, increasing their incentives to cultivate personal votes. I study unity in position-taking and voting behaviour of Mexican state legislators from 2012 to 2018. To analyze position-taking, I apply correspondence analysis to a new dataset of over half a million legislative speeches in twenty states. To study voting, I analyze over 14,500 roll-call votes in fourteen states during the same period. Results show that reelection incentives increased intra-party unity, which has broad implications for countries introducing electoral reforms aiming to personalize politics.

Reflective thinking often predicts less belief in God or less religiosity – so-called analytic atheism. However, those correlations involve limitations: widely used tests of reflection confound reflection with ancillary abilities such as numeracy; some studies do not detect analytic atheism in every country; experimentally encouraging reflection makes some non-believers more open to believing in God; and one of the most common online research participant pools seems to produce lower data quality. So analytic atheism may be less than universal or partially explained by confounding factors. To test this, we developed better measures, controlled for more confounds, and employed more recruitment methods. All four studies detected signs of analytic atheism above and beyond confounds (N > 70,000 people from five of six continental regions). We also discovered analytic apostasy: the better a person performed on reflection tests, the greater their odds of losing their religion since childhood – even when controlling for confounds. Analytic apostasy even seemed to explain analytic atheism: apostates were more reflective than others and analytic atheism was undetected after excluding apostates. Religious conversion was rare and unrelated to reflection, suggesting reflection’s relationships to conversion and deconversion are asymmetric. Detected relationships were usually small, indicating reflective thinking is a reliable albeit marginal predictor of apostasy.