An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic

Inductive logic is unlike deductive or symbolic logic. In deductive reasoning, when you have true premises and a valid argument, the conclusion must be true too. Valid deductive arguments do not take risks.

Inductive logic takes risks. You can have true premises, a good argument, but a false conclusion. Inductive logic uses probability to analyse that kind of risky argument.

Good News

Inductive reasoning is a guide in life. People make risky decisions all the time. It plays a much larger part in everyday affairs than deductive reasoning.

Bad News

People are very bad when reasoning about risks. We make a lot of mistakes when we use probabilities.

This book starts with a list of seven Odd Questions. They look pretty simple. But most people get some of the answers wrong. The last group of nine-year-olds I tested did better than a group of professors. Try the Odd Questions. Each one is discussed later in the book.

Practical Aims

This book can help you understand, use, and act on probabilities, risks, and statistics. We live our lives taking chances, acting when we don't know enough. Every day we experience a lot of uncertainties. This book is about the kinds of actions you can take when you are uncertain what to do. It is about the inferences you can draw when your evidence leaves you unsure what is true.