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In spite of the omnibus property of integrated conditional moment (ICM) specification tests, they are not commonly used in empirical practice owing to features such as the non-pivotality of the test and the high computational cost of available bootstrap schemes, especially in large samples. This article proposes specification and mean independence tests based on ICM metrics. The proposed test exhibits consistency, asymptotic $\chi ^2$-distribution under the null hypothesis, and computational efficiency. Moreover, it demonstrates robustness to heteroskedasticity of unknown form and can be adapted to enhance power toward specific alternatives. A power comparison with classical bootstrap-based ICM tests using Bahadur slopes is also provided. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to showcase the excellent size control and competitive power of the proposed test.
Translocations are a conservation method used to establish or supplement self-sustaining populations. However, research regarding the welfare implications of this strategy is limited, particularly in recipient wild populations. Introductions of captive-born individuals are commonly used to supplement populations of endangered white-clawed crayfish (Austropotamobius pallipes), the UK’s only native crayfish species. To determine effects of translocation, both introduced and wild crayfish were marked and PIT-tagged, then monitored through behavioural observations and body condition scoring. We undertook analysis on welfare indicators, comparing resident and captive crayfish, as well as resident crayfish pre- and post-introduction. Our results provide some evidence that translocation events alter behaviour of resident crayfish. We also found some evidence that wild and captive-born crayfish differ in behaviour, with potentially negative welfare implications. By contrast, body condition analysis showed no variation pre- and post-introduction, suggesting that captive-born crayfish can effectively adapt to natural environments. Some behavioural differences were also better explained by other predictors rather than origin of animal. Multiple influences on the behaviour of crayfish were identified, including sex and weather conditions. Moreover, we identified factors which could enhance the welfare of this species in captivity and increase translocation efficacy, such as replicating features of natural environments in hatcheries. We also establish a basis for future research which could enhance conservation and understanding of the species.
Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is emerging as the leading cause of chronic liver disease worldwide, with a spectrum ranging from simple steatosis to advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Its pathogenesis is multifactorial and involves genetic, metabolic, and gut microbiota factors. Gut microbiota, through the gut-liver axis, plays a crucial role in the progression of MAFLD. Here, we investigated the association between DI-GM, a novel metric reflecting diet-microbiota interactions, MAFLD, and liver fibrosis, with a focus on the mediating role of vitamins. Using data from 13,498 participants across seven NHANES cycles (2007–2018), we found that higher DI-GM scores, indicative of a healthier gut microbiota-promoting diet, were associated with a reduced prevalence of MAFLD (OR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88–0.99) and high-risk liver fibrosis (OR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.90–0.98) in fully adjusted models. Notably, the relationship between DI-GM and MAFLD and the risk of liver fibrosis is largely mediated by specific vitamins and carotenoids, with vitamin C and cis-β-carotene emerging as key mediators. These findings suggest that dietary interventions targeting the gut microbiota and vitamin supplementation could offer new strategies for the prevention and management of MAFLD. Our study provides the first comprehensive evidence linking DI-GM to MAFLD and the risk of liver fibrosis, highlighting the potential of diet and nutrition to modulate metabolic liver diseases. Future research should focus on elucidating the underlying mechanisms and validating these findings through prospective studies and clinical trials.
This article analyses selected hymns of Romanos the Melodist (c. 485–562) with a special focus on who speaks and who listens. Romanos uses apostrophes to address biblical characters, the triune God, the Mother of God, and saints. Did they listen? In rare cases, characters respond – for instance, the eternal villain Hades, whom Romanos interrogates about Christ’s descent to the Underworld. At other times, the biblical characters seem to address the congregation from the storyworld. Examples such as these are analysed through the lens of modern narratology.
As Antimicrobial Stewardship and Healthcare Epidemiology (ASHE) concludes its first five years of existence, we reviewed and summarized the career perspectives publications. ASHE Careers publications are structured interviews with luminaries in infection prevention, public health, and antimicrobial stewardship, where leadership and professional development themes are individualized and explored. Across 14 published interviews from experienced infectious disease professionals identified, we synthesized 10 important themes amongst them. Among them emerged a strong emphasis on the central role of mentorship in career development, the importance of maintaining adaptability, and willingness to explore emerging opportunities of an ever-changing field. Together, these lessons offer guidance for those seeking direction or growth in healthcare epidemiology.
The PReDicT study showed that predictive algorithm-guided antidepressant treatment reduces anxiety and improves functioning in patients with depression.
Aims
To estimate the costs, outcomes and cost-effectiveness of the PReDicT test compared with treatment as usual (TAU) for primary depression care in five European countries.
Method
Within-trial economic analysis was conducted over 24 weeks from the health/social care and societal perspectives alongside the PReDicT trial (NCT02790970) in France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain, and the UK, according to Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guidelines. We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) based on the EQ-5D-5L, capability-weighted life-years based on the Oxford Capabilities Questionnaire – Mental Health (OxCAP-MH) (Germany and UK only), and costs for 2018 (€). Multiple imputation for missing data, multivariable regression for cost and outcome differences, and bootstrapping and sensitivity analyses for uncertainty were conducted.
Results
There were significant outcome improvements (EQ-5D-5L PRedicT: +0.139; TAU: +0.140) and societal cost reductions (PRedicT: −€2589; TAU: −€2602) in both groups (N = 913) between the before and during trial periods. In the UK and Germany (n = 619), the PReDicT group showed significant additional capability well-being gains (OxCAP-MH: +2.127, p = 0.021). Cost-effectiveness probabilities ranged from 46 to 59% at trial level, but exceeded 80% in the UK. Results remained stable across different sensitivity analyses, with societal cost-effectiveness improved for those (self-)employed.
Conclusions
We observed potentially meaningful health and economic benefits of closely monitored antidepressant treatment, as implemented in both treatment and control arms of the PReDicT trial. The PReDicT test itself had some added benefits in improved capabilities and productivity, however, with great uncertainty and country-level variations in cost-effectiveness.
Widespread evolution of glyphosate resistance among kochia populations is a serious challenge for growers across the North American Great Plains. Dicamba has historically been used to control glyphosate-resistant (Gly-R) kochia. However, the increasing spread of dicamba-resistant kochia and current restrictions on dicamba use (low volatile formulations) warrant alternative herbicide options to control Gly-R kochia. In this context, field-based dose response experiments were conducted in fallow at Kansas State University Agricultural Research Center, Hays, KS, during 2021 and 2022 to determine and compare the effectiveness of 2,4-D, dicamba, and dichlorprop-p applied alone, and in a premixture of 2,4-D/dicamba/dichlorprop-p for controlling Gly-R kochia. Averaged across two years, results indicated that substantially lower doses of 2,4-D, dicamba, and dichlorprop-p were required in a premixture to achieve effective control of Gly-R kochia compared with their standalone applications. Specifically, the ED90 values for Gly-R kochia control were reduced by 90-, 4-, and 6-times for 2,4-D, dicamba, and dichlorprop-p, respectively, when applied as a premixture. Similarly, achieving 90% biomass reduction required approximately 1021-, 3-, and 4-times lower doses of 2,4-D, dicamba, and dichlorprop-p, respectively, in the premixture than when applied alone. Altogether, these results demonstrated that the premixture of 2,4-D/dicamba/dichlorprop-p can be an effective alternative for managing Gly-R kochia in fallow. The reduced dose requirements in a premixture also suggested potential benefits for resistance management, cost efficiency, and environmental stewardship.
The Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-Item Scale (GAD-7) is a brief self-reported measure for screening for anxiety symptoms. However, the evidence about its cross-cultural validity is fragmentary and usually focused on specific settings. Therefore, we aimed to critically review and synthesize the existing evidence about the cross-cultural validity of the GAD-7.
Methods
We conducted a systematic review of studies assessing the cross-cultural validity of the GAD-7 in following the PRISMA guidelines. Additionally, the quality of the studies was assessed following the COSMIN guidelines, and the quality of the evidence was assessed with the GRADE. Data were synthesized narratively.
Results
Out of 1,965 unique records, 9 unique studies were deemed eligible for the COSMIN appraisal and the narrative synthesis (total sample: 11,894, 53.7% females and 20 different cultural groups). Most studies (7) had adequate quality and showed evidenced of the unitary structure of the GAD-7 across cultural groups. In 4 studies also assessing possible cultural bias, the effect on the general score was deemed negligible.
Conclusions
The evidence about the cross-cultural validity of the GAD-7 is very limited. Although more research is needed, the evidence available shows that the GAD-7 could be a cross-culturally valid tool for the assessment of anxiety symptoms in clinical contexts and epidemiological studies. Until new high-quality evidence will be available, these results would constitute a key first step for supporting the use of the GAD-7 in multi-cultural clinical settings and to inform clinical, public health and global health decision making in relation to anxiety.
President Donald Trump’s actions to assert control of the executive branch in his second term have been breathtaking in their speed, volume, and diversity. Trump’s actions raise the more general question of how to make sense of his presidency in historical perspective. Presidency scholars have contributed landmark research characterizing presidents based on personal characteristics, historic patterns, common incentives at work in different institutional configurations, and behaviors associated with populist leaders more generally. This article is a distillation of the theory behind Trump’s actions and describes the mechanics of how the president has asserted control over federal personnel in his second term. It concludes with the implications of these actions for governance and for our understanding of the Trump presidency in history more generally.
We study a robust optimal reinsurance and investment problem for an ambiguity-averse insurer, where decisions are influenced by past capital flows (delay). The insurer’s surplus is modelled via diffusion approximation, and the financial market comprises a risk-free asset and a risky asset following geometric Brownian motion. To capture ambiguity aversion toward both insurance and financial risks, we employ the alpha-max/min mean-variance criterion, which generalizes the classical mean-variance approach by weighting worst-case and best-case scenarios under model uncertainty. Incorporating a time-delay structure into the wealth dynamics leads to an infinite dimensional stochastic control problem. Using stochastic control theory for delay systems, we derive an extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation and a verification theorem. Explicit, closed-form solutions for the robust optimal time-consistent reinsurance and investment strategies, along with the equilibrium value function, are obtained. Key findings include: (i) the equilibrium reinsurance strategy becomes more conservative as ambiguity aversion increases; (ii) the impact of ambiguity aversion of an individual on the investment strategy depends on the correlation between insurance and financial risks. When this dependence is weak, higher ambiguity aversion leads to a more conservative investment strategy. However, if the insurance market is highly ambiguous, a more ambiguity-averse insurer may surprisingly adopt a more aggressive investment strategy to diversify overall portfolio risk. Numerical analyses illustrate the effects of crucial parameters such as the ambiguity aversion coefficient, delay parameters and market coefficients of the optimal strategies, providing further economic interpretation and validation.
Building on Cramer’s (2016) foundational work on rural consciousness, we measure place consciousness in Canada as a unified construct capturing both in-group place identification and out-group place resentment. Using data from a large-scale Canadian survey, we then examine how place consciousness relates to federal voting behaviour across a novel typology of six urban, suburban, and rural place types. We find that place consciousness is strongest on the ends of the urban-rural continuum; in low- and high-income rural places, and in core urban contexts with large shares of knowledge economy workers. Strong place consciousness relates to Conservative voting in the former places, and Liberal voting in the latter. Place consciousness is weaker in suburban and working-class urban places, and less systematically related to voting behaviour. By examining place consciousness across place types, our findings reveal the nuanced ways in which place identity and resentment shape vote choice across Canada’s urban–rural cleavage.
For the past 13 years, Egypt has been ruled by the personalist-cum-military dictatorship of Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. In 2013, El-Sisi seized power after overthrowing the first freely elected civilian president in Egypt’s history, Mohamed Morsi, and has since undertaken a sweeping reconfiguration of Egypt’s political economy. He narrowed the ruling coalition to privilege military, intelligence, and police officers while demoting and surveilling civilian state elites such as judges and parliamentarians. The praetorian ruling clique is kept intact by unbroken streams of foreign financing. Recipient of an annual $1.3 billion of military aid from the United States since 1979, the military is now also the beneficiary of some of the largest arms transfers in its history; Egypt was the world’s eighth-largest arms importer between 2020 and 2024. Another income stream is the military’s extensive enterprises in the civilian economy; they pay no taxes, control public land, and enjoy the free labor of conscripts. Intelligence agencies own media companies that produce agitprop valorizing El-Sisi as a handsome visionary, as satirized in the thriller Eagles of the Republic (dir. Tarik Saleh) that premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in 2025.
This work investigates the dynamics of positive classical solutions to a diffusive susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible epidemic model with a mass-action incidence mechanism in spatially heterogeneous environments. Under minimal assumptions on the initial data, the global existence of classical solutions is established. Moreover, the eventual boundedness of these solutions is proved when either the spatial domain has dimension five or lower or the susceptible and exposed subpopulations share the same diffusion rate. Next, we define the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_0$, and demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable when $\mathcal{R}_0$ is sufficiently small. However, due to the complex interaction between population movement and spatial variation in transmission rates, we find that the disease may persist even when $\mathcal{R}_0$ is slightly less than one. In such cases, we show that the system admits at least two endemic equilibrium (EE) solutions, an outcome not observed under the frequency-dependent incidence mechanism. These results highlight the significant influence of the transmission mechanism on disease dynamics. Furthermore, we examine the spatial profiles of the EE solutions when diffusion rates are small. Our analysis suggests that limiting the movement of the susceptible population can significantly reduce disease prevalence, provided that the total population remains below a specific threshold. In contrast, restricting the movement of the infected, exposed, or recovered populations alone may not eradicate the disease. Overall, our findings provide important insights into the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases and may offer guidance for developing and implementing effective containment strategies.
Education policy is always at risk of working at cross-purposes toward education goals. Using a meta-ethnographic methodology and Massey’s geometry of space theory, the present article addresses this in relation to a particular policy realisation problem of teaching for sustainability in schools in depopulated rural areas with identified population challenges. Specific attention has gone to research addressing the enacted curriculum and teachers’ experiences of working with sustainability goals. The results highlight features for goal realisation such as the presence of and attention to rural natural and cultural environmental heritage, having local access and giving curriculum attention to local employment and sustainable vocations and professions, and having community support from the local community and engagement of the school in the community. Working against sustainability were global epistemic rural marginalisation, performative curriculum relations, market competition and competitive exclusions from market participation, tepid community involvement in schools, and socially isolated schools insulated from the local community.
While research on oppression has focused on the various ways in which oppressed or marginalized individuals are disadvantaged, standpoint epistemologists have long been arguing that the standpoints achieved from oppressed social locations can provide the marginalized with an epistemic advantage. While in themselves laudable, we venture, discussions of the advantage thesis tend to continue a tradition in mainstream epistemology that undermines the crucial role affectivity plays in disclosing facts about the world by framing the debate in purely epistemic terms. Bringing standpoint theory into conversation with contemporary philosophy of emotions, we argue, allows us to recognize the epistemic value of emotions and to see that some knowledge the marginalized can gain about the workings of oppression while cultivating their standpoint is at root fundamentally and irreducibly affective. This lends not only more credibility to the advantage thesis in general, but it also allows to arbitrate between two different readings of this thesis that are currently a matter of controversy: marginalized standpoints afford knowledge that is, due to its fundamentally affective nature, not just easier for the marginalized than the dominant to obtain, but in principle inaccessible to the dominant.