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Forensic psychiatric services are expanding in many countries, and discharging patients from secure hospitals relies on accurate estimates of risk of adverse outcomes. Novel evidence-based tools for estimating one key risk, violent reoffending, have been developed in recent years. We aimed to externally validate one new tool, FoVOx, in forensic psychiatric patients sentenced to treatment and to develop an updated model (FoVOx2), incorporating additional clinical predictors.
Methods
Using Swedish national registers, we conducted a temporal external validation of FoVOx by examining 767 patients discharged between 2014 and 2023. For the FoVOx2 cohort, 906 patients discharged between 2008 and 2023 were followed up, and additional predictors tested. The outcome was violent reconviction within 12 or 24 months. Model performance was evaluated using Harrell’s C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs), calibration, and classification metrics at predefined thresholds.
Results
In temporal validation, FoVOx showed moderate discrimination (AUCs 0.69 and 0.71; C-index = 0.69) and acceptable overall accuracy (Brier <0.11). Calibration was generally good, with mild overestimation at the highest predicted risks (>20%) at 12 months and slight underprediction at 24 months. The updated FoVOx2 model incorporated novel predictors, including clozapine treatment and additional diagnostic categories. It was associated with improved performance (AUCs 0.77; optimism-corrected C-index = 0.72; Brier 0.06 and 0.09) and demonstrated good calibration (intercept ≈ 0; slopes 1.03 and 1.05).
Conclusions
Updating risk assessment tools with additional clinical factors can lead to incremental improvement in model performance. Implementing tools should consider clinical utility and impact as next steps.
Using data from Afrobarometer surveys conducted across 39 countries (n ≈ 53,000), this study examines the relationship between ethnic identification and public attitudes toward interethnic marriage in Africa. Descriptive analyses indicate that most Africans are either supportive of or indifferent toward such unions. However, multivariate regression results show that individuals who identify more strongly with their ethnicity than their nationality are significantly less likely to support interethnic marriage. This negative association is particularly strong among rural residents. These findings suggest that strong ethnic identification can act as a barrier to social integration in multiethnic societies. They also highlight the importance of policies that foster inclusive national identities and encourage intergroup engagement through education and civic initiatives.
Working memory deficits are common in mood disorders and severely affect everyday functioning. Serotonin (5-HT) signalling has been implicated in depression and is also involved in cognitive functioning. However, its relevance for working memory remains largely unexplored.
Aims
Using positron emission tomography (PET) brain imaging, we investigated the link between working memory and multiple 5-HT brain features in both healthy individuals and patients with mood disorders in a cross-sectional analysis of pooled data-sets.
Method
We used multiple linear regression to test the associations between working memory performance and 5-HT 1B receptor (5-HT1BR) (healthy controls: 28), 5-HT 2A receptor (5-HT2AR) (healthy controls: 116), 5-HT 4 receptor (5-HT4R) (healthy controls: 97, patients: 98) and 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) (healthy controls: 137, patients: 12) PET binding in the frontal cortex. The frontal cortex was chosen as region of interest as it is critical for working memory functions.
Results
There was no association between working memory and 5-HT1BR (p = 0.14), 5-HT2AR (p = 0.99) or 5-HTT (p = 0.80) frontal cortex binding in healthy controls. For the 5-HT4R, we observed a significant interaction effect of group status (p = 0.01), with patients showing a positive association (β = 6.51, p = 0.02) and healthy individuals showing no significant association (p = 0.16).
Conclusions
We found no evidence that key 5-HT receptor systems are associated with working memory performance in healthy individuals, but did observe a positive association for 5-HT4R in patients with mood disorder. We speculate that although 5-HT neurotransmission markers may map onto working memory performance in the healthy state, pathologically altered 5-HT signalling may contribute to working memory deficits in mood disorders, possibly through downstream signalling and/or interactions with other neurotransmitter systems.
Aggression has been closely linked to suicidal ideation in schizophrenia (SCZ). However, whether its correlates differ by suicidal ideation status remains unclear.
Aims
This study aimed to assess the prevalence of aggression and compare the clinical correlates and predictive models of aggression in chronic SCZ patients with and without suicidal ideation.
Method
A total of 659 chronic SCZ patients were recruited from 10 psychiatric hospitals in China. A brief interview assessed the presence of suicidal ideation in patients. Participants were assessed using the Insomnia Severity Index, Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, Modified Overt Aggression Scale and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale.
Results
SCZ patients with suicidal ideation exhibited a higher prevalence of aggression than those without (39.46 v. 22.15%, p < 0.001). Regardless of suicidal ideation status, patients with aggression were younger and presented with more severe clinical symptoms across multiple domains, except for negative symptoms which showed differential associations between groups. Among patients with suicidal ideation, those exhibiting aggression had a higher proportion of females and lower body mass index. Logistic regression analysis indicated that, in patients without suicidal ideation, male gender was an independent risk factor for aggression (odds ratio 1.856) whereas milder negative symptoms acted as a protective factor. In patients with suicidal ideation, positive and general psychopathology symptoms were positively associated with aggression whereas negative symptoms retained a protective effect.
Conclusions
Our findings suggest that aggression is more prevalent in patients with suicidal ideation, and its clinical correlates differ significantly based on suicidal ideation status. Stratified assessment of aggression risk considering suicidal ideation is warranted.
Discussions on the relationship between science and society frequently advocate for direct engagement between scientists and lay people. While such engagement is often framed as a remedy for declining trust in science, it introduces a distinct set of ethical challenges. One such challenge concerns the risk of epistemic trespassing, the overstepping of disciplinary boundaries. Another arises when individual scientists, by virtue of their public role, are seen as representatives of “science” as a whole. These issues are further complicated by a less-discussed form of trespassing: the ethical tensions that emerge when scientists draw on non-epistemic sources of authority, such as charismatic or traditional authority (in the Weberian sense), to bolster their public claims. This paper argues that addressing these challenges requires a nuanced, context-sensitive approach. In some cases, the most ethically defensible strategy and pragmatically viable strategy may be not to communicate individually, but rather to contribute to collective efforts that facilitate responsible public communication. By reframing public engagement as a team task, scientists can mitigate the risks of trespassing while still fulfilling their role in fostering trust in science.
Agriculture relies heavily on the ecosystem services provided by beneficial insects, and supporting their populations in these areas is important. We tested for differences in bee communities between pastures and unmanaged (natural) grasslands in Manitoba, Canada. Pastures were either grazed by cattle or cut for hay. Hayed pastures were planted with an enhanced seed mix to benefit both bees and livestock. Nevertheless, enhanced hay fields were dominated by alfalfa. We found that natural and grazed sites supported more bees than hay sites did. Grazed sites tended to support oligolectic (plant specialist) bees, whereas natural sites supported more polylectic (plant generalist) bees. Bee capture rates were positively associated with overall field size. Associations between bee functional traits (diet, nesting, and sociality) and environmental variables are discussed. Our results indicate that grazing may be an important management tool for conservation of oligolectic and ground-nesting bees. In addition, polylectic and stem-nesting bees may use natural landcover types more than agricultural landcover types, and increasing the amount of natural landcover for insects should be a priority.
In low- and middle-income countries, four out of five people with mental illness do not receive specialised treatment. Utilising non-specialist frontline workers to deliver basic mental health services at the community level therefore warrants exploration.
Aims
This study assessed improvement in the knowledge and skills of frontline community workers in identifying symptoms of anxiety and depression, making appropriate referrals and providing psychosocial counselling, in a rural district of Pakistan.
Method
Project mPareshan developed a training manual to enhance the mental health literacy of government-employed lady health workers (LHWs) and lady health supervisors (LHSs). Content was adapted from the World Health Organization’s Mental Health Gap Action Programme 2.0 intervention guide to suit the local context. A total of 72 participants (36 LHSs and 36 LHWs) from the Badin District, Sindh, Pakistan, received the training. Pre- and post-tests were conducted to assess changes in knowledge and skills, using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test.
Results
There was a statistically significant improvement in both knowledge (p < 0.01, r = 0.85) and competency (p < 0.01, r = 0.81) median scores following the mPareshan training. LHSs demonstrated higher percentage increase in knowledge and competencies in domains requiring practical application, such as coping mechanisms, psychosocial support and referral pathways, compared with LHWs, highlighting the importance of their supervisory role and support in mental health service delivery.
Conclusions
The mPareshan mental health training has the potential to improve the knowledge and competencies of community health workers. Such initiatives can be scaled up to enable frontline workers to function as an effective workforce in the absence of specialist mental health services.
Water insecurity is a persistent challenge in many American Indian and Alaska Native communities, where access to safe, reliable, and culturally relevant water sources is shaped by historical displacement, infrastructure neglect, and environmental degradation. Addressing these longstanding inequalities calls for more equitable, relationship-based, and decolonial approaches to community engagement and collaboration. Our reflexive essay examines how collaborative, Indigenous-centered research practices can strengthen water security efforts in Tribal communities. Using a reflexive qualitative approach grounded in Indigenous Research Methodologies, we analyzed how relationality, ethical engagement, and attention to Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) shaped our team’s research practices and partnerships with Tribal communities. Reflexive and culturally grounded approaches strengthened trust, collaboration, and accountability between researchers and community partners. Integrating IKS with western science research and water justice approaches improved the cultural relevance of the work and supported community-driven, sustainable outcomes. Our experience suggests that water security research is strengthened when it is grounded in relationality, deep listening, and respect for Tribal sovereignty. These findings support the development of ethical, collaborative, and culturally responsive research and policy approaches to water security in Tribal communities.
For a given $d$-tuple $\rho =(\rho _1,\ldots ,\rho _d):\Gamma \to G$ of faithful Zariski-dense convex-cocompact representations of a finitely generated group $\Gamma$, we study the correlations of length spectra $\{\ell _{\rho _i(\gamma )}\}_{[\gamma ]\in [\Gamma ]}$ and correlations of displacement spectra $\{\mathsf{d}(\rho _i(\gamma )o,o)\}_{\gamma \in \Gamma }$. We prove that for any interior vector $\mathsf v=(v_1,\ldots ,v_d)$ in the spectrum cone, there exists $\delta _\rho (\mathsf v) \gt 0$ such that for any $\varepsilon _1, \ldots , \varepsilon _d\gt 0$, there exist $c_1,c_2\gt 0$ such that
We deduce this result as a special case of our main theorem on the distribution of Jordan projections with holonomies and Cartan projections in tubes of an Anosov subgroup $\Gamma$ of a semisimple real algebraic group $G$. We also show that the growth indicator of $\Gamma$ remains the same when we use Jordan projections instead of Cartan projections and tubes instead of cones, except possibly on the boundary of the limit cone.
This study, conducted under ESA’s Global Development Assistance programme, presents a pilot demonstration integrating Earth Observation (EO) data into livestock management in Paraguay. Led by GMV in collaboration with FECOPROD and the World Bank, the study applied the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model, driven by Sentinel-2 and climate data, to generate high-resolution, 10-metre dry matter biomass (DMB) maps. These products were calibrated using field plots and integrated into a dedicated application for trend analysis. Model validation against ground-truth bale weights showed strong performance with an R2 of 0.89 and an RMSE of 8.83%. The results suggest that EO-derived insights can support the optimisation of grazing patterns, potentially helping to prevent overgrazing. This provides farmers with actionable data to align feed production with seasonal cycles, improving resource management. However, the current validation is limited to a single year and confined to managed plots within the study area; further work is required to assess model performance across different seasonal conditions and in the broader Chaco landscape, where mixed woody vegetation is prevalent. Notwithstanding these limitations, this scalable approach demonstrates potential to reduce environmental impact while enhancing productivity and offers a replicable framework for Paraguay’s agricultural sector and similar regions globally, pending further validation.
The Preveli nappe of Crete (Uppermost Unit) is derived from Permo-Triassic sediments and volcanics. Structural data, deformation microfabrics and petrological constraints suggest that subduction of the Preveli rocks was related to ESE-directed D2 shearing under epidote-blueschist-facies conditions (T = 360 ± 40°C and P > 1.0 GPa). New U-Pb ages of rutile from blueschist (132 ± 12 and 135 ± 10 Ma, 2σ) suggest that subduction and related HP-LT metamorphism occurred during the Early Cretaceous (Eohellenic phase). 39Ar-40Ar dating of ferri-winchite and Rb-Sr dating of phengite yielded 125 ± 10 Ma (1σ) and 131 ± 7 Ma (2σ), respectively, which also reflect the subduction stage. Further Rb-Sr dating of phengite and albite, coupled with trace element data (B, Li), revealed four growth stages, which are younger. They range from 120 to 90 Ma and are attributed to fluid-assisted shearing and reactivation of the main foliation at still deep structural levels (>1 GPa). Alpine emplacement of the Preveli nappe on top of the Pindos Unit was accommodated by brittle top-to-the west thrusting and west-vergent D3 folding. The age of this event has been constrained at 31 ± 9 Ma (2σ), by U-Pb dating of calcite. Despite the uncertainty, this age confirms that the Preveli nappe was emplaced after the deposition of the Paleogene Pindos flysch. The new data suggest that the Preveli nappe is derived from the Rhodope-Strandja or from the Sakarya Zone of Turkey. When travelling towards its recent position on Crete, the Preveli nappe should have passed the Cyclades, where similar rocks are exposed.
In the inclined layer convection system, thermal convection in a Rayleigh–Bénard cell tilted against gravity, the flow is subject to competing buoyancy and shear forces. For varying inclination angle ($\gamma$) and Rayleigh number ($ \textit{Ra}$), a variety of spatio-temporal patterns is observed. We investigate the switching diamond panes (SDP) pattern, observed at $(\gamma , \textit{Ra})\simeq (100^\circ ,10\,000)$, which exhibits large-scale oblique features and is one of the five complex tertiary patterns at Prandtl number $ \textit{Pr}=1.07$. First, we study the linear instability of the secondary-state transverse convection rolls and the five branches including two travelling waves and three periodic orbits, bifurcating simultaneously from it. These non-generic bifurcations arise from the breaking of specific spatial symmetries of transverse rolls, and the resulting bifurcated solutions show large-scale diamond-shaped amplitude modulations. Second, we explore a periodic orbit that captures both the large-scale structure and small-scale defects of modulated rolls. Parametric continuation in $ \textit{Ra}$ reveals the global homoclinic bifurcation via which this periodic orbit emerges. Third, the edge states between two dynamically relevant periodic orbits have been computed. Specifically, additional steady and time-periodic solutions are identified on the basin boundary and their bifurcation structures are analysed. Together, using nonlinear invariant solutions and their bifurcations, we take a further step toward understanding the emergence and dynamics of SDP far from the onset of convection, where linear methods have not been applied successfully.
Time-varying effective reproductive numbers of infectious diseases are commonly estimated using renewal equation models. In the widely applied R package EpiEstim and various related tools, this approach is combined with a Poisson distributional assumption. This has been criticized on various occasions, mostly on grounds of general model realism or a desire to estimate dispersion parameters. Here, we argue that an important issue arising from the Poisson assumption is that inference about the effective reproductive number becomes overconfident in the presence of overdispersion. The extent to which standard errors are underestimated follows from theory on generalized linear models in a straightforward manner. We therefore recommend to replace the Poisson assumption by quasi-Poisson or negative binomial extensions, and contrast their respective properties. We illustrate our arguments in detailed simulation studies and three case studies on Ebola, pandemic influenza, and COVID-19.
Recent conflicts have revived interest in a subject that has remained largely untouched since the trials of war criminals after the Second World War: prosecuting individuals for the crime of aggression. Due to its restricted jurisdictional regime, the International Criminal Court has so far been unable to investigate this crime and remains barred from doing so in, for example, the context of the Ukraine situation. When exploring alternative domestic (or hybrid) venues for prosecuting aggression, discussions have come to focus on the possibility of exercising universal jurisdiction (UJ), a concept increasingly used to counteract substantive selectivity of international criminal justice. However, scholars and practitioners have expressed differing views on the extent to which the notion of UJ has come to extend to the crime of aggression under customary international law. This study contributes to the ongoing debates by providing a legal-empirical analysis of the practice and opinio juris of 126 states, as presented to the Sixth Committee of the UN General Assembly under the agenda item on the ‘scope and application of universal jurisdiction’. These empirical quantitative and qualitative insights provide a foundation for evaluating the customary status of UJ over the crime of aggression and exploring the legal challenges of prosecuting aggression under this jurisdictional title.
This article examines the historical evolution, legal foundations and contemporary practice of National Information Bureaux (NIBs), institutions that States are required to establish under the Geneva Conventions to collect, centralize and transmit information on enemy combatants hors de combat and certain categories of enemy civilians who have fallen into the State’s hands. It traces the origins of NIBs from early wartime initiatives in the nineteenth century to their codification in the 1949 Geneva Conventions, particularly Article 122 of Geneva Convention III and Article 136 of Geneva Convention IV. NIBs are intended to facilitate the exchange of information on prisoners of war and interned protected persons, to respond to enquiries concerning their fate and whereabouts, and to assume certain other tasks related to these categories of persons. Drawing on historical sources and contemporary State practice, the article shows that the establishment and functioning of NIBs remain uneven. States most frequently establish NIBs in the context of international armed conflicts, in particular conflicts with neighbouring States or military interventions abroad. These bodies are usually embedded within governmental structures, and their activities often extend beyond the tasks envisaged in the Geneva Conventions, frequently prioritizing issues relating to the State’s own nationals. By contrast, there is no documented practice of establishing NIBs in non-international armed conflicts, although some States have created institutions performing partially comparable tasks. Peacetime practice is also limited, with a relatively small number of States establishing or preparing NIBs through standby institutional arrangements. Two models have emerged: the State-operated model, in which NIB functions are assigned to ministerial or other governmental bodies, and the auxiliary-humanitarian model, in which these tasks are entrusted to National Red Cross or Red Crescent Societies. The article concludes by identifying key challenges in the contemporary operation of NIBs and suggesting measures to strengthen their effectiveness.
This study examines the intersection of climate change awareness and legal literacy consciousness among staff and students in Ghanaian senior high schools (SHS) situated in environmentally vulnerable areas. Focusing on district schools within the Central and Western regions of Ghana, where illegal mining and pollution have severely degraded ecosystems, the research explores how legal knowledge influences environmental advocacy justice. Using a qualitative paradigm, the study employs a multiple-case study design involving 30 participants, including students and staff from selected SHS in these regions. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, with thematic analysis applied to identify recurring patterns and themes. The findings reveal that while participants demonstrate a growing awareness of the impacts of climate change, their legal literacy regarding environmental rights and regulations remains limited. This gap hinders their ability to advocate for environmental justice and hold stakeholders accountable. The study underscores the need for integrating legal literacy into environmental education curricula to empower communities to combat climate change and environmental degradation. By amplifying the untold stories of these communities, this research contributes to the discourse on climate justice and the role of education in fostering sustainable environmental practices in resource-rich but vulnerable districts of Ghana.
The growth of a single vapour bubble in a saturated pool of boiling water at atmospheric pressure on a transparent heater is investigated experimentally. The study focuses on a several microns thick liquid layer (called a microlayer) that can form between the heater and the bubble. The microlayer profile, the wall temperature distribution and the overall bubble shape are measured simultaneously and synchronously by white light interferometry, infrared thermography and sidewise shadowgraphy. To study the microlayer dynamics for different bubble growth rates, artificial cavities of different sizes were used. These control the wall superheating required for the bubble nucleation, i.e. the nucleation barrier. Both the bubble growth at its inertial stage and the microlayer parameters are found to be almost independent of the applied heat flux and controlled by the nucleation barrier only. The microlayer thickness and its area increase with the nucleation barrier. A model of microlayer formation based on an analogy with the Landau–Levich film deposition is further developed. By using it, the initial microlayer thickness, the time of microlayer formation at a given distance from the bubble centre and the radius of curvature of the bubble foot edge are recovered from the experimental data. The radius of curvature varies in time like the bubble radius, thus suggesting a self-similar bubble growth at its initial inertial stage. The coherency of the above model with the experimental results shows the model’s validity.