Let $\Omega _1, \ldots , \Omega _m$ be probability spaces, let ${\mathbf \Omega }=\Omega _1 \times \cdots \times \Omega _m$ be their product and let $A_1, \ldots , A_n \subset {\mathbf \Omega }$ be events. Suppose that each event $A_i$ depends on $r_i$ coordinates of a point $x \in {\mathbf \Omega }$, $x=\left (\xi _1, \ldots , \xi _m\right )$, and that for each event $A_i$ there are $\Delta _i$ other events $A_j$ that depend on some of the coordinates that $A_i$ depends on. Let $\Delta =\max \{5,\ \Delta _i\,:\, i=1, \ldots , n\}$ and let $\mu _i=\min \{r_i,\ \Delta _i+1\}$ for $i=1, \ldots , n$. We prove that if ${\mathbb P}(A_i) \lt (3\Delta )^{-3\mu _i}$ for all $i$, then for any $0 \lt \epsilon \lt 1$, the probability ${\mathbb P}\left ( \bigcap _{i=1}^n \overline {A}_i\right )$ of the intersection of the complements of all $A_i$ can be computed within relative error $\epsilon$ in polynomial time from the probabilities ${\mathbb P}\left (A_{i_1} \cap \ldots \cap A_{i_k}\right )$ of $k$-wise intersections of the events $A_i$ for $k = e^{O(\Delta )} \ln (n/\epsilon )$.

This paper introduces the concept of the regulatory ethos to describe some common values and ideals that underscore the close connection between validation and regulation that this issue of BJHS Themes explores. We identify the primary motivation for this ethos as making knowledge production processes traceable, and define the regulatory ethos as valuing plans over situated actions, uniformity over heterogeneity, auditing over communication, and validation over validity. Standard operating procedures, reporting checklists, preregistrations, compliance rules and monitoring are key means through which this ethos is enacted. While regulators have been instrumental in promulgating this ethos, it is not confined to the regulatory sphere. We argue that reforms aimed at enhancing rigour and reproducibility are an example of how the practices and values associated with regulatory science have diffused out into academic science. Identifying this ethos as regulatory in origin – rather than wholly new or as part of a broader process of modernization – allows us to see that alternatives are not unscientific per se, and better identify the strengths and weaknesses of the regulatory ethos of science, such as the risk that data produced through these procedures will be replicable, statistically rigorous, and transparent, but not meaningful.

This paper describes a prototype test harness that has been developed to evaluate the use of large language model retrieval-augmented generation systems for humanities and social science research, with an emphasis on collections held in the galleries, libraries, archives and museum sector. We propose the development of new modes of research software engineering oriented towards the values and principles of those communities, and rigorous modes of software testing grounded in industry best practices.

Archaeological knowledge of Indigenous human–plant relationships within the Canadian northern plains is comparatively limited to more southern areas of the Great Plains. This is partly due to a lack of standardized requirements and methodologies for paleoethnobotanical research in Canadian cultural resource management; in addition, often such research is only routinely practiced by paleoethnobotanists, of which there are few in the study region. However, deep-rooted traditions of Eurocentric Western ontologies have also shaped archaeological knowledge of precolonial Indigenous human–plant relationships. This article illuminates how archaeological knowledge of precolonial Indigenous Ways-of-Being has been highly influenced by early historical, anthropological, and settler-colonial logics. We then collate and reevaluate archaeological evidence of Indigenous plant management from the Canadian northern plains (e.g., paleoethnobotanical evidence) and problematize contemporary archaeological approaches to past Indigenous human–plant relationships in the study area. To conclude, we suggest pathways for expanding archaeological knowledge of Indigenous human–plant relationships in the Canadian northern plains through engaging with Indigenous Knowledge, dismantling remnant colonial foundations in archaeological practices, and expanding archaeological science approaches.

In this paper, we consider catastrophe stop-loss reinsurance valuation for a reinsurance company with dynamic contagion claims. To deal with conventional and emerging catastrophic events, we propose the use of a compound dynamic contagion process for the catastrophic component of the liability. Under the premise that there is an absence of arbitrage opportunity in the market, we obtain arbitrage-free premiums for these contracts. To this end, the Esscher transform is adopted to specify an equivalent martingale probability measure. We show that reinsurers have various ways of levying the security loading on the net premiums to quantify the catastrophic liability in light of the growing challenges posed by emerging risks arising from climate change, cyberattacks, and pandemics. We numerically compare arbitrage-free catastrophe stop-loss reinsurance premiums via the Monte Carlo simulation method. We also compare them with those from generalized compound Hawkes/compound Cox cases. Sensitivity analyses are performed by changing the retention level, the Esscher parameters, and the intensity parameters.

The civil society organizations (CSOs) in Bangladesh that came into the limelight for their activities during the COVID-19 pandemic are relatively new. Their formation, platform building, support expansion, fundraising, and coordination took place within the virtual network. Moreover, this new generation of civil society is engaged in digital advocacy. Under these new circumstances, it has become important to undergo a systematic study on this new generation of CSOs. The present article has conducted a content analysis of the websites (105) and Facebook pages (20) of sampled CSOs that have registered with the NGO Affairs Bureau of Bangladesh from 2011 to 2021. Their digital activities have been analyzed under four broad headings, namely, information and transparency, participation, networking, and mobilization. It has been found that although a few CSOs have come into the limelight for their digital performance, 81% of the CSOs are not using any official website. CSOs that are active on digital platforms are mostly concerned with providing information about themselves rather than engaging in online advocacy or mobilization. Among the different types of CSOs, youth groups have been found to be the most active users of Facebook, whereas service-providing NGOs and environmental CSOs have been observed to be disinterested in utilizing the digital facilities. Though digital culture has already taken root in the socio-political and economic life of Bangladesh, the CSOs seem to be in a transitional phase of digitalization, and their efforts to advocate for and deliver services through the digital space are at an initial stage.

We integrate provenance, sedimentological and tectonic analyses to reconstruct sediment sources, transport pathways and hydroclimatic evolution of the Rotliegend Group in the Norwegian North Sea. The study also evaluates implications for basin development and reservoir quality in this key reservoir interval. Detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology from nine wells integrated with facies analysis, dipmeter- and image-derived palaeocurrent data and a palinspastic restoration reveals that sediment sources were closer to the basin than today and that inherited structural highs compartmentalized drainage and aeolian fields. Facies trends record a transition from arid dune fields to semi-arid mixed dune, interdune, flash-flood and playa-lake systems, reflecting increasing hydrological connectivity and base-level rise during the early Permian. Detrital zircon spectra define three main provenance domains with Caledonian-derived aeolian sand transported from the west–northwest, Sveconorwegian-sourced alluvial-fan systems along the eastern basin margin and hybrid basement-fed systems along northern and southern highs. Mixed zircon-age populations indicate substantial recycling of Devonian Old Red Sandstone basin fills and convergence of multiple sediment transport pathways within the basin interior. Converging transport pathways enabled interaction between long-distance and short-range detrital zircon input, whereas sustained pathway partitioning maintained distinct first-order provenance domains at basin scale. Provenance influences reservoir quality through its control on sediment composition, texture and depositional facies, with quartz-rich Caledonian-derived aeolian deposits retaining anomalously high porosities and feldspathic Sveconorwegian-derived alluvial-fan deposits displaying consistently lower porosity. Integrating provenance, facies, palaeocurrents and restored basin geometry therefore provides a predictive framework linking sediment transport, tectonic inheritance, and reservoir distribution in ancient continental basins.

I analyze the main characteristics of the hierarchy of levels of selection as manifestors of adaptation (i.e., hierarchy of levels of evolutionary organization) and show that, while ranked, this hierarchy is nonnested. Secondly, I consider a potential objection to my approach derived from Eronen and Ramsey’s (2025) claim that levels of organization should be teased apart from levels of selection. I argue that their approach rests on a failure to distinguish between interactors and manifestors of adaptation, for while a hierarchy of interactors does not correspond to a hierarchy of levels of organization, a hierarchy of manifestors does.

The child quantity–quality (QQ) tradeoff is central to both household decision-making and long-run theories of economic development. Despite extensive research, there is little consensus regarding the sign of the effects of additional siblings on child outcomes. Most previous studies examine the relationship between family size and child quality indirectly through the consequences of the allocation of parental resources, such as educational and labor market achievements. Using Indian data, I present evidence of a quantity–quality tradeoff in direct parental monetary expenditures in shadow education (or private tuition). Exploiting the elder son preference typically observed in the study context, I instrument fertility with gender of the first child, two girls, and same-sex birth. IV estimates show a parity-specific quantity–quality tradeoff. The effects are heterogeneous. In wealthier families or those in urban areas, the trade-off is more pronounced.